The Tennessee Titans look to have a stranglehold on the AFC South, but online betting oddsmakers seem to have little faith in Tennessee as a long-term threat to win the Super Bowl heading into Week 8.
Despite a two-game division lead and a win this season already against the Colts, the Titans are still only a slight 1-point favorite. So let’s have a look at the Titans at Colts matchup to see why bettors believe that this game could be competitive.
Inside The Numbers
This game will get a lot of attention for its running back matchup. For the Colts, Jonathan Taylor ran for 145 yards against Houston in Week 6 and 107 more in Week 7 at San Francisco. Yet in Week 3 of the Titans vs. Colts, Taylor was held to 64 yards by the Tennessee defense.
On the other side, Derrick Henry continues to be a wrecking ball. Yes, he only managed 86 yards on 29 attempts against the Chiefs, but Henry did throw for a touchdown to MyCole Pruitt. It seems like there’s nothing that Henry can’t do.
The home side has the upper hand in quarterbacks for the Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts. Carson Wentz is healthy again, and that’s good news for the Colts. He’s been consistent with 15 TD passes and only one interception.
The older Ryan Tannehill doesn’t get credit as an elite quarterback, and his ratio of seven touchdowns to five interceptions isn’t too impressive. He still maintains a 65% completion rate, though, and he’s capable of taking advantage of a defense that stacks the box against Henry.
Yet Tannehill has started to find a comfort zone with A.J. Brown, who saw nine targets in Week 7. In addition, Julio Jones is back from early injury, so that one-two threat adds to the Colts defensive woes this week.
The most significant factor in this matchup is that the Titans lead the league in time of possession. Tennessee averages over 34 minutes a game in time of possession, and a lot of that is down to Derrick Henry.
Titans vs. Colts (+1)
The caliber of competition these two teams have faced reveals some notable differences. Since the last Titans vs. Colts matchup, Indianapolis is 3-1. They lost to Baltimore and beat weaker opponents, Miami, Houston, and San Francisco.
Tennessee has stepped up to beat Buffalo and Kansas City in successive weeks. The Titans’ only loss since they’ve played the Colts came when they stumbled early against the Jets.
If you’re looking for an edge on the Colts’ side besides Carson Wentz, then it’s on defense. Indianapolis leads in takeaway differential with +9 compared to the Titans -1. So if Indy can create some turnovers, the Colts would be able to limit the Titan’s time of possession, which would take away their greatest strength.
This game has all the earmarks for a titanic battle. Carson Wentz is back at the top of his game, and the team’s confidence has grown with two straight wins. But, the Tennessee Titans have won three in a row.
Titans at Colts Outcome
Derrick Henry has a habit of having breakout games after getting held under 100 yards. After gaining only 58 yards against the Cardinals in Week 1, he busted out for 182 yards in Seattle the next game.
With the Titans at Colts in Week 8, I look for Derrick Henry to carry the load again. Tennessee should have a high time of possession as a result. Even though I believe that Carson Wentz is the better quarterback this year, it doesn’t matter if he’s watching the game from the sidelines.
The Colts have more to play for this week. Indianapolis needs a win to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot, but I believe that the Titans will win.
I will take the point and go with Tennessee for this game, and I’m picking them to run away with the AFC South. Do you agree, or are you choosing the Colts to get back in the race?