If you’re looking for the top NFL picks and parlays, you’ll want to look at teams that have a high probability of winning while still providing value. In my opinion, the top three teams to consider in Week 13 are the Arizona Cardinals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Baltimore Ravens.
This week’s NFL betting odds have some intriguing lines that could provide excellent payouts for bettors. Let’s take a closer look at where and how you should place your wagers.
Arizona Cardinals (-350, Under 45.5) at Chicago Bears
The Cardinals (9-2) travel to face the Chicago Bears this Sunday. Coming off a bye, Kliff Kingsbury is hopeful that Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins will be back in action.
The Cardinals are a heavy favorite at -350. The current over-under is 45.5. If you believe that Arizona will have Kyler Murray back on the field, taking the Cardinals’ money line and over 45.5 could be tempting, but there are some things to consider.
The Bears are ranked 29th for scoring in the NFL. While the Bears rank 18th in scoring defense, giving up an average of 23.1 points per game, they’re 8th in passing defense, only allowing 215.8 yards on average. Even if Murray plays, I believe the Bears can keep the Cardinals below 28 points.
Even if Arizona scores 28 points in this game, I don’t believe the Bears can score 18 against Arizona’s fourth-ranked scoring defense and push the combined score to 46.
Arizona is 5-6 for the over this season, while Chicago is 3-8. Therefore, I believe the stronger play is to take the Cardinals’ money line and the under, which has a higher payout.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5, Over 50) at Atlanta Falcons
Moving on to the Buccaneers, the league’s top-scoring offense. They’ll be on the road against the Atlanta Falcons this week, a divisional rival.
The Bucs won their previous matchup against Atlanta, 48-25, back in Week 2. That same level of offensive output was on display last week on the road against the Indianapolis Colts when the Bucs came from behind to win 38-31.
Since Week 2, the Falcons have gone 5-4, winning those five games by an average of four points. In those four losses, they fell by an average of almost 19 points per game.
They’re getting +10.5 at home versus the Bucs this week.
Tampa Bay and Atlanta are both 5-6 ATS. The Falcons are last, however, when it comes to covering at home, with a 0-4 record ATS.
Both teams have hit the over in at least five games this year. As a result, the current over-under is 50.
The Bucs lead the NFL in points per game at 31.5, while Atlanta gives up the second-most points per game at 27.5. The Falcons are also not very good at getting pressure on the quarterback. They have the fewest sacks in the NFL (15), and they only pressure the quarterback on 18.3% of dropbacks, which is second-worst in the NFL.
Considering that Tom Brady will likely have time in the pocket to find open receivers, I think the Bucs will win big and that the game will hit the over.
Baltimore Ravens (-200, Under 43.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
A final team worth considering is the Ravens on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The lines have already moved for Baltimore (-4.5) with a money line at -200.
The over-under for the Ravens at Steelers is now 43.5. Baltimore is 1-3 ATS as a road favorite this season, while Pittsburgh is 1-0 ATS as a home underdog. The Ravens are 5-6 ATS overall, while the Steelers are 4-7. (Pittsburgh is also last in the NFL for their record ATS after a loss at 1-3.)
Baltimore averages 23.9 points per game, but over their past three contests, they’ve only averaged 14 points (one of those games was without Lamar Jackson). The Steelers, meanwhile, have averaged 21 points per game, but that includes their game against the Chargers when they scored 37 points. The Chargers game was the exception, not the rule, for a team that only averages 20.4 points per game.
Considering Pittsburgh’s poor run defense (28th in the NFL), I believe that Baltimore will run the ball frequently and focus on keeping time of possession in their favor. That should keep the score low. I like Pittsburgh to cover the 4.5, but I also like Baltimore to win outright and for this game to go under 43.5.
What Picks and Parlays Are You Taking This Week?
I like the idea of parlaying:
- Ravens vs. Steelers under 43.5
- Bucs vs. Falcons over 50.5
- Cardinals -350 money line
This ticket currently gives +368 odds.
What do you think? There are plenty of other great NFL picks and parlays in Week 13.
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