Top 3 NFL Underdog Bets in Week 12

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BetMGM Staff @BETMGM Nov 22, 2021, 10:38 AM

When looking at the NFL betting lines, it is immediately clear we are dealing with a market adjusting to underdogs. What I mean by that is, in the 15 games on the Week 12 slate, eight of them have a spread within three points. There are no double-digit underdogs, and the most significant point spread is 7.5 points.

Let’s closely examine this week’s slate of games and explore the top three NFL underdog bets for Week 12.

It’s Now or Never for the Lions

The Detroit Lions haven’t won a game all season. They haven’t won on Thanksgiving in five years.

The Lions are +3 home underdogs, just as they have been underdogs in every game this season. But the Lions have covered the spread two weeks in a row against two potential AFC playoff teams. They tied the Steelers (16-16) and lost by three points to the Cleveland Browns last week.

Detroit Lions running back D’Andre Swift has been a significant reason the Lions have been competitive recently. He has had back-to-back 100-yard rushing games, and Swift is going up against a bottom ten rushing defense in the Chicago Bears.

For the Bears, Andy Dalton will replace Justin Fields at quarterback. And at this point in the week, star wide receiver Allen Robinson is not practicing with his hamstring injury after sitting out last week. A short week to prepare for the game on Thursday adds to the doubt that Robinson will be 100%.

For the Detroit Lions, if not now, then when?

Keeping With Kirk Cousins

The Minnesota Vikings visit the San Francisco 49ers this Sunday. The line opened at Vikings +2.5, and I was begging for it to bump to +3. And that’s just what it did. Vikings +3.

The Vikings have performed well on the road this season. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their five road games, covering two losses to the Cardinals and the Ravens (both losses by a game-winning field goal) and two wins against the Chargers and the Panthers.

Minnesota has one of the most talented skill players on offense, with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen. I expect them to handle a 49ers team that’s only won one home game this season.

With only six turnovers, Cousins and the Vikings are an intelligent underdog bet getting a field goal (+3) against the San Francisco 49ers.

5-0 Against the Spread as an Underdog

It’s not often a team with the second-best record in the league is 6.5 point underdogs. But that’s where the Tennessee Titans find themselves, +6.5 road dogs to one of the NFL’s hottest teams, the New England Patriots.

This season, the Titans are 5-0 ATS as an underdog, and their defense improves every week. They only allow an average of 97.2 rushing yards per game and force Patriots QB Mac Jones to push the ball downfield.

That said, I don’t necessarily think the Titans will win this game. The Titans are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Houston Texans, not unlike their horrible loss to the Jets.

But after their loss to the Jets, they rolled off six straight wins and propelled themselves into the conversation for the best team in football. The Titans will bounce back, play good defense, and keep the game close enough to cover this Sunday.

Underdog Best Bets in Week 12

These are my three best NFL underdog bets. Do you like these games? Or do you have another underdog in mind?

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BetMGM Staff

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Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.

Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.