The final week of the NFL regular season is here, meaning we’re only one week away from the start of the playoff. I always try to be cautious when betting on the NFL odds in the season’s last week, as teams may decide to rest players for the playoffs.
I find over-unders to be a safer option this late in the season. Read on for my three favorite NFL over-unders this week.
Bengals at Browns Under 38
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 9th
- Time: 1:00 P.M. EST
- Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, OH
The Cincinnati Bengals clinched the AFC North crown in Week 17 with a win against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Cleveland Browns have sputtered on offense recently. Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield has battled injuries all season. He’s elected to sit out of the Browns season finale to have surgery on his shoulder. This week, Case Keenum will start for the Browns. The last time Keenum started was in Week 7 when he threw for 199 yards and a touchdown in a 17-14 win over Denver.
The Bengals must face the fifth-best rushing defense without running back Joe Mixon, who tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday. Mixon is second in rushing yards and third in attempts this season. Cleveland also allows the sixth-fewest passing yards per game (208.5). Joe Burrow is also sitting out of this game to rest for the playoffs. Brandon Allen, who has thrown for 13 yards this season, will be the starter for Cincinnati.
With two backup quarterbacks facing off this week, I see this game going under.
Saints at Falcons Under 40.5
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 9th
- Time: 4:25 P.M. EST
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA
The New Orleans Saints need a win and luck to make the postseason. First, they must take care of business against the Atlanta Falcons. They also need the Los Angeles Rams to defeat the San Francisco 49ers.
The Saints have a chance at the playoffs because of their defense. Starting quarterback Jameis Winston suffered an injury in Week 8 that ended his season, and star RB Alvin Kamara has also experienced knee and hamstring injuries.
The Saints held opponents to 10 points or below in their last three wins, including a shutout versus Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. New Orleans ranks fourth in points allowed on the season, averaging 19.7 per week.
The Falcons offense hasn’t topped 20 points in the past three weeks and only averages 18.3 points per game this season. I expect the Saints to keep this game low-scoring.
Chargers at Raiders Over 48.5
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 9th
- Time: 8:20 P.M. EST
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV
The Los Angeles Chargers score a lot of points, ranking sixth in points per game (27.6). The Las Vegas Raiders defense struggles to stop teams from scoring, ranking 24th in points allowed per game (25.4).
Los Angeles has its own defensive woes, ranking 26th in points allowed per game (26.5).
The Chargers only average 25.1 rushing attempts per game (19th), and the Raiders run the ball an average of 23.8 times (29th). However, both Justin Herbert and Derek Carr rank in the top five for passing yards. While 48.5 is a relatively high total, I believe these teams will try to air it out to win.
This game has the makings of a shootout because of each team’s high-octane passing offenses coupled with struggling defenses.
The Best NFL Over-Unders for Week 18
These are my top three NFL over-unders, and the final games of the regular season should make for exciting betting.
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