The NFL odds in Week 16 offer plenty of potential regarding underdog wagers. Some of these teams might surprise you.
Let’s break down the top three NFL underdog bets this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+115)
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 26th
- Time: 1:00 PM EST on CBS
- Venue: MetLife Stadium in Rutherford, NJ
- Participants: Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets
On Sunday, the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12) will travel to face the New York Jets (3-11).
Last week, the Jets lost on the road to the Miami Dolphins, 31-24. Zach Wilson threw for 170 yards without a touchdown. He got sacked six times, and the offense totaled 228 yards.
Jacksonville also lost on the road last week to the Houston Texans, 30-16. Trevor Lawrence threw for 210 yards without a touchdown.
While both the Jaguars and Jets have struggled to score points, their matchup may come down to defense.
The Jets’ rushing defense ranks 30th in the NFL, giving up 141.9 yards per game. Jacksonville ranks 17th overall and 9th in their last three games in rushing yards allowed per game, so their run defense has shown improvement. Meanwhile, the Jets rank 30th in rushing yards per game, so they may have to rely on a passing game that’s ranked 27th in yards per game in their last three contests and that allows three sacks per game (28th).
I believe that the Jaguars will pick up their first road victory this week.
Carolina Panthers (+10.5)
- Date: Sunday, Dec. 26th
- Time: 1:00 PM EST on FOX
- Venue: Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC
- Participants: Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers
Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4), the Carolina Panthers (5-9) opened as a +10.5 underdog.
Tom Brady had his worst game of the season last week at home versus the New Orleans Saints. The Bucs lost 9-0 in a game where Brady threw for 214 yards with one interception.
Tampa Bay is 2-2 SU/ATS this season in the NFC South. They’ll face a Panthers team that lost on the road last week to the Buffalo Bills, 31-14.
Cam Newton threw for 156 yards with one touchdown and an interception. He also ran 15 times for 71 yards and a score.
The Bucs have allowed 26.6 points per game on the road this season. They’ve given up 21.75 points per matchup in the division. The Panthers are 2-1 SU/ATS in the NFC South and average 22 points per game this season against division opponents.
Tampa Bay likes to throw the ball, averaging 43.6 passes per game (1st in the NFL). On the other hand, Carolina’s pass defense allows the second-fewest passing yards per game at 178.8. Part of the reason for their success against the pass is that they sack the quarterback on 7.95% of dropbacks, which is good for fourth in the league.
I don’t believe that Carolina can stop Tom Brady, but I do think that the team’s passing defense can slow the Buccaneers’ offense down enough to cover the +10.5 spread.
Miami Dolphins (+135)
- Date: Monday, Dec. 27th
- Time: 8:15 PM EST on ESPN
- Venue: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA
- Participants: Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints
The Miami Dolphins (7-7) will play the New Orleans Saints (7-7) on Monday Night Football in Week 16.
The Dolphins won their sixth game in a row last week at home versus the Jets. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 196 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.
Running back Duke Johnson, who was signed to the practice squad in late October to help with Miami’s injuries at the position, ran for 107 yards and two scores.
Meanwhile, the Saints shut out the NFL’s top-scoring team on their own turf last week. They have the league’s sixth-best rushing defense. However, New Orleans ranks 17th in passing defense, allowing 240.2 yards per game. At home, they’ve given up an average of 312.6 passing yards. This week, they’ll try to stop Tagovailoa, who leads the league in completion percentage (69.9%).
Miami ranks 13th in the NFL at passing yards per road game. In their last three matchups, they’ve averaged 28 points per contest. In contrast, New Orleans has averaged 18.7 points in their previous three games, with Taysom Hill as their starter.
Miami’s defense has been just as impressive as the Saint’s over the past six weeks. Miami has only allowed 13.1 points per game during their six-game winning streak. I believe that their defense will continue this dominance against a Saints team that struggles to score points. I like the New Orleans money line this week.
NFL Underdog Bets in Week 16
What do you think? Which NFL underdog bets do you like in Week 16?
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