The Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup will feature two of the NFL’s top four MVP candidates in Josh Allen and Tom Brady. Allen’s odds took a hit after Buffalo dropped a game against the Patriots, but he’s still fourth in MVP odds behind Tom Brady (+150), Aaron Rodgers (+600), and Kyler Murray (+750).
BetMGM NFL odds show the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as three-point favorites in this heavyweight matchup. I see some value on the point total and the money line in this game. Read on to learn more about the best betting angles for Bills at Buccaneers in Week 14.
Total Points Over 53.5 (-110)
The Buffalo Bills allow just 88.3 rushing yards per game on the road. But, on Monday, their run defense got embarrassed by Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots.
The good news for the Bills is that the Bucs rank 31st in the NFL in rush attempts per game, coming in just ahead of the New York Jets. So I wouldn’t expect them to become a run-first team in this matchup. Buffalo prefers to pass the ball, too; the Bills rank 18th in the NFL in rushing attempts per game. In summary, these teams like to air the ball out, which means they won’t eat up much clock on the ground.
The Bucs have scored 30 or more points in each of their last three games and have averaged 31.4 points on the season. They’ve also given up 25 or more points in six of their games this season. If these trends continue, the Bills will need to score 24 points to push this game over. However, since both teams prefer to pass the ball, there should be enough possessions for both teams to get the total to 54.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Money Line (-175)
Tampa Bay is playing at home in this game, where they’re currently 5-0. At home, they’ve scored an average of 38.4 points and allowed an average of only 16.8 points.
This week, the Bucs play a Bills team that’s been inconsistent over the past several weeks. In their last five games, the Bills have had point totals of six, 45, 15, 31, and 10.
Perhaps the main reason I like the Buccaneers to win outright is their ability to protect the quarterback. The Bills are 26th with 21 sacks on the year, while the Patriots have given up the fewest sacks in the NFL (15). I don’t see Tom Brady losing at home against an inconsistent offense and a defense that may not be able to put sustained pressure on him.
Buccaneers Money Line and Over 44.5 Total Points (+130)
Parlays are always a little dicey, but this one might have some value. The Buccaneers are -175 favorites on the money line, and this parlay drops the total points by more than a touchdown.
Six of Tampa Bay’s last eight games have gone over 44.5 total points. Although parlays are riskier than single wagers, I like this alternative wager because it gives bettors some cushion on the point total to account for Buffalo’s inconsistency. If the Bucs score 30 in this matchup, the Bills will only need to score 15 to reach the over.
Previewing the Bills at Buccaneers Game in Week 14
The Bills at Buccaneers game should be an exciting matchup between two MVP candidates. The Bills have fallen to the 7th seed in the AFC playoff race and need a win to solidify their chances at a postseason appearance, but I don’t know if they can get it done against Tampa Bay at home.
To place wagers on this game and others in the Week 14 NFL slate, head over to the BetMGM online sportsbook. Sign up today and receive a risk-free initial bet worth up to $1,000.