- The Dodgers are -200 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: John Ober
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Clayton Kershaw
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Minnesota Twins (+165) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) on Tuesday, May 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Twins vs Dodgers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 23-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 23-19 ATS.
Twins vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -120 | O 8 -115 | +165 |
| Dodgers | -1.5 +100 | U 8 -105 | -200 |
Twins vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+15.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.10 Units / 61% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+8.70 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+11.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+11.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+10.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Trayce Thompson has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 60% ROI)
- Trayce Thompson has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 59% ROI)
Dodgers vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Dodgers vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
Dodgers vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -500 |
Dodgers vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -125 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 20 away games (+10.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 42 games (+4.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.90 Units / 24% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 16 games (+11.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+10.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+8.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+8.00 Units / 70% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 23-19 against the Run Line (+4.75 Units / 9.5% ROI).
- 23-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -4.34% ROI
- 18-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.4 Units / -11.56% ROI
- 21-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.3 Units / 2.82% ROI
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 23-19 against the Run Line (+6.95 Units / 14.95% ROI).
- 27-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.15 Units / 4.86% ROI
- 22-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.15 Units / 2.47% ROI
- 19-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -10.34% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 81% of the time (140/173) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (71/230) against Bailey Ober since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 45% (46/103) against Bailey Ober — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed an OBP of just .239 (92 PA’s) this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: .319 — 95th Percentile.
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
10 of Clayton Kershaw’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for most among in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
10 of Clayton Kershaw’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 62% of Clayton Kershaw’s non-fastballs (272/441) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Clayton Kershaw has a strike rate of 70% (518/736) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Twins are just 5-18 (.217) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 10-0 (1.000) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .608.
The Twins are just 26-48 (.351) when underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
The Twins are just 14-34 (.292) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Dodgers are 34-21 (.618) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Dodgers are 7-54 (.115) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Dodgers are 73-30 (.709) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Dodgers are 137-57 (.706) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .106 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
The Twins are batting just .204 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
The Twins are just 5-18 (.217) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .266 (379 PA’s) when leading off an inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have chased 22% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Dodgers hitters have 154 extra-base hits out of 319 total hits (48%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .772 (2,395 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .687.
Dodgers hitters have 41 extra-base hits out of 78 total hits (53%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Twins pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents are hitting just .220 against Twins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Dodgers have won 51% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Dodgers pitchers have walked 520 of 7,424 batters (7%) since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Dodgers have allowed 3.37 runs per game (340/101) on the road since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.37.
The Dodgers have won 57% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Dodgers vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Michael Grove (Dodgers): Groin, D15
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D15
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Pepiot (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
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