- The Dodgers are -135 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Dustin May
- Watch the game on SportsNet LA
The Minnesota Twins (+110) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) on Wednesday, May 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Twins vs Dodgers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 24-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 23-20 ATS.
Twins vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 +100 | +110 |
| Dodgers | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -120 | -135 |
Twins vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+14.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+9.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+8.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+8.45 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Mookie Betts has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 34 games (+12.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+10.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Trayce Thompson has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 60% ROI)
- Trayce Thompson has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 59% ROI)
Dodgers vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
Dodgers vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Dodgers vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Miguel Vargas | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Dodgers vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| May | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Sonny Gray | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +100 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 away games (+9.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 43 games (+5.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.70 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.55 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.25 Units / 36% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 17 games (+9.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+9.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 39 games (+7.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+6.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.65 Units / 52% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 24-19 against the Run Line (+5.75 Units / 11.22% ROI).
- 24-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -1.58% ROI
- 18-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -13.69% ROI
- 22-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.3 Units / 4.88% ROI
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 23-20 against the Run Line (+5.95 Units / 12.53% ROI).
- 27-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 1.72% ROI
- 22-20 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 20-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.75 Units / -7.98% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray has struck out 40% (43/108) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 59% (140/238) in two strike counts this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — sixth Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .268 (44 Total Bases / 164 ABs) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .397 — 96th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strikeout rate of 54% (56 SO in 104 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 95th Percentile.
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 9% (7/76) against Dustin May with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (53/341) against Dustin May this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .171 (28-for-164) against Dustin May this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — 95th Percentile.
Dustin May has allowed a slugging percentage of just .250 (41 Total Bases / 164 ABs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .397 — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Twins are just 5-18 (.217) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 11-0 (1.000) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .611.
The Twins are 6-4 (.600) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Twins are 14-3 (.824) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .684.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Dodgers are 7-55 (.113) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Dodgers are 34-22 (.607) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Dodgers are 138-67 (.673) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Dodgers are 4-14 (.222) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .111 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
The Twins are just 5-18 (.217) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .212 (883 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .290 (345 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have chased 22% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Dodgers are batting just .194 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .786 (5,688 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .771 (2,408 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .688.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Twins pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
Dodgers pitchers have an ERA of 3.05 (890.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
Dodgers pitchers have walked 116 of 1,601 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Dodgers have won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Dodgers have won 50% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Dodgers vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Michael Grove (Dodgers): Groin, D15
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Pepiot (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
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