- The Twins are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Twins starting pitcher: John Ober
- Guardians starting pitcher: Peyton Battenfield
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Minnesota Twins (-125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+105) on Friday, May 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Twins vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 18-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 12-19 ATS.
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 -105 | -125 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -115 | +105 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 68.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+9.90 Units / 90% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.30 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 31 games (+14.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+8.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+7.90 Units / 49% ROI)
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gordon | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+6.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 32 games (+3.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+2.50 Units / 12% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 15 games (+10.80 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.25 Units / 3% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 18-14 against the Run Line (+3.6 Units / 9.31% ROI).
- 18-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -2.84% ROI
- 14-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -6.92% ROI
- 15-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -1.14% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 12-19 against the Run Line (-7.25 Units / -19.13% ROI).
- 14-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.85 Units / -21.17% ROI
- 11-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.85 Units / -28.93% ROI
- 19-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.95 Units / 20.35% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Fried allowed an OPS of just .784 (156 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count in 2022 — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.001 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 19% (5/26) against Max Fried in late innings in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 97th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has walked 5 of 26 left-handed batters (19%) — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — sixth Percentile.
19 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in 2022 — 4th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 93rd Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Peyton Battenfield has located his fastball away 59% of the time (76/128) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 98th Percentile.
Peyton Battenfield has walked 11 of 76 batters (14%) this season — 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 8% — sixth Percentile.
Peyton Battenfield has induced opposing hitters to ground into 3 double plays in 11 opportunities (27%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 99th Percentile.
Peyton Battenfield has located his pitches away 60% of the time (176/295) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 5-17 (.227) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 12-31 (.279) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 14-41 (.255) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
The Twins are 7-0 (1.000) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .601.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 21-67 (.239) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .122.
The Guardians are 5-10 (.333) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Guardians are 21-45 (.318) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .197.
The Guardians are 23-25 (.479) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .348.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 16 strikeouts in 35 PA’s (46%) against LHP over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Twins are batting just .122 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Twins are batting just .194 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .208 (654 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .646 (1,951 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 956 strikeouts in 5,400 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 10 of 57 batters (17%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 14 of 282 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Guardians pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 86 of 1,182 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
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