- The Twins are -105 favorites vs the Guardians
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Minnesota Twins (-105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-115) on Saturday, May 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Twins vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 19-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 12-20 ATS.
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -115 | -105 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 -105 | -115 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+9.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 74% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 32 games (+15.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+10.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+7.85 Units / 87% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+6.90 Units / 40% ROI)
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Guardians vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 away games (+7.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 33 games (+4.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+2.50 Units / 12% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 16 games (+11.80 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 19-14 against the Run Line (+4.95 Units / 12.48% ROI).
- 19-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -0.79% ROI
- 14-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -9.97% ROI
- 16-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.6 Units / 1.66% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 12-20 against the Run Line (-8.8 Units / -22.31% ROI).
- 14-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.85 Units / -23.01% ROI
- 11-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.05 Units / -31.35% ROI
- 20-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.95 Units / 22.62% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray has struck out 36% (31/85) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has an ERA of 0.77 (35.0 IP)this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.77 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 37% (56/153) against Sonny Gray this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 95th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (357/702) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Allen had a strikeout rate of 36% (16/45) over the last 30 days of the regular season (2 games) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 15% (4/26) versus Logan Allen over the last 30 days of the regular season (2 games) — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 93rd Percentile.
Logan Allen threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 77% (27/35) of opposing batters over the last 30 days of the regular season (2 games) — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters swung at 53% of Logan Allen’s pitches (101/190) over the last 30 days of the regular season (2 games) — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 94th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 5-17 (.227) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 7-0 (1.000) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .602.
The Twins are just 12-31 (.279) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 2-9 (.182) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 21-68 (.236) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Guardians are 15-72 (.172) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Guardians are 75-4 (.949) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .911.
The Guardians are just 2-5 (.286) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .410.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .131 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Twins are batting just .194 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
The Twins are batting just .122 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .207 (673 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 965 strikeouts in 5,431 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .646 (1,951 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 10 of 57 batters (17%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 15 of 291 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Guardians pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 88 of 1,214 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 103 of 1,751 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
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