- The Twins are -150 favorites vs the Guardians
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Minnesota Twins (-150) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+125) on Sunday, May 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Twins vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 19-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 13-20 ATS.
Twins vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +110 | O 8.5 -110 | -150 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 -110 | +125 |
Twins vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 63.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+12.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.10 Units / 58% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 33 games (+16.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+11.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+9.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+7.90 Units / 40% ROI)
Guardians vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Guardians vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +210 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 away games (+8.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 34 games (+3.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 18 games (+2.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 13 games (+1.25 Units / 6% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 17 games (+12.80 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 26 games (+11.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.40 Units / 5% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 19-15 against the Run Line (+3.95 Units / 9.72% ROI).
- 19-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.5 Units / -2.91% ROI
- 14-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.65 Units / -12.37% ROI
- 17-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.6 Units / 4.28% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 13-20 against the Run Line (-7.8 Units / -18.91% ROI).
- 15-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.85 Units / -20.16% ROI
- 11-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.05 Units / -33.24% ROI
- 21-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.95 Units / 24.59% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 74% (180/244) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 71% (377/531) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has struck out 39% (29/75) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of 59% (144/244) against Joe Ryan this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (33/251) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has struck out just 8% (7/83) of right-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 11% (15/142) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 12% (17 SO in 145 PAs) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 5-17 (.227) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 12-31 (.279) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 0-12 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Twins are 85-3 (.966) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .954.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 21-68 (.236) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Guardians are just 12-10 (.545) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .737.
The Guardians are 15-72 (.172) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .090.
The Guardians are 5-11 (.312) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .133 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .644 (259 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Twins are batting just .203 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
The Twins are batting just .131 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 974 strikeouts in 5,460 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .343 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .332 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Twins pitchers this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Guardians pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 15 of 300 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 90 of 1,251 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
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