- The Orioles are -125 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan, 13.50 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Bradish, 1.80 ERA
The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit Ed Smith Stadium to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-125) on Friday, March 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EST in Sarasota.
The Orioles are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Twins vs Orioles Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Twins are 4-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 6-5 ATS.
Twins vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -165 | O 10.5 -105 | +105 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +140 | U 10.5 -115 | -125 |
Twins vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 0.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gary Sanchez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.70 Units / 60% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 16% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 75 of their last 160 games (+10.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 160 games (+9.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 40 games (+7.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 142 games (+28.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 142 games (+22.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 70 games at home (+5.00 Units / 6% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 3-5 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -27.32% ROI).
- 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 17.95% ROI
- 4-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.65 Units / -6.95% ROI
- 4-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -1.2% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 6-5 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -1.05% ROI).
- 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -20.79% ROI
- 8-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.75 Units / 39.42% ROI
- 3-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -47.95% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (134/461) against Joe Ryan since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 31% (48/157) against Joe Ryan in two-strike counts last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Joe Ryan has allowed a slugging percentage of just .202 (26 Total Bases / 129 ABs) on fastballs away since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .384 — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 19% (47/246) against Joe Ryan since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Bradish had an ERA of 7.21 (63.2 IP) against division opponents last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 3.93 — second Percentile.
Division opponents batted .324 against Kyle Bradish (85-for-262) last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .247 — third Percentile.
Kyle Bradish had a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (294/509) last season — tied for 15th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 12th Percentile.
Opponents batted .410 (25-for-61) against Kyle Bradish on the first pitch of at-bats last season — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 10th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 6-11 (.353) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 8-56 (.125) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Twins are just 32-48 (.400) on the road last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Orioles are 69-25 (.734) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Orioles are 61-2 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Orioles are 14-68 (.171) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Orioles are 65-3 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins batted just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins have hit 3,371 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater since the start of the 2021 season — 5th most in MLB.
The Twins have hit 193 balls in play with an exit velocity over 110 MPH since the start of the 2021 season — 4th most in MLB.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters had an OPS of just .534 (259 PA’s) against LHP over the last 30 days of the regular season (21 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Orioles hitters have 909 strikeouts in 3,781 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles hitters have chased 32% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of just .232 (6,578 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 185 of 2,843 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Baltimore Orioles – No Injuries Reported
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
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