- The Pirates are -140 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Aaron Sanchez, 21.60 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller, 4.09 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Minnesota Twins (+115) visit LECOM Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-140) on Saturday, March 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Bradenton.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).
The Twins vs Pirates Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Twins are 6-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 7-8 ATS.
Twins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -155 | O 11.5 +100 | +115 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +130 | U 11.5 -120 | -140 |
Twins vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 58.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Twins vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gary Sanchez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Billy Hamilton has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Billy Hamilton has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Greg Allen has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.50 Units / 183% ROI)
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 75 of their last 160 games (+10.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 160 games (+9.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 73 away games (+6.70 Units / 8% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+8.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 6-7 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -9.97% ROI).
- 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 8.82% ROI
- 5-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -19.59% ROI
- 7-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.8 Units / 12.95% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 7-8 against the Run Line (-3.4 Units / -17.26% ROI).
- 4-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -35.35% ROI
- 10-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.6 Units / 33.43% ROI
- 4-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -41.41% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .404 (267 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .297 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .333 (62-for-186) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .258 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .280 (136-for-485) against Mitch Keller’s non-fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .221 — second Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (639/1,136) since the start of the 2021 season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 62% — fourth Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 15-30 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 9-36 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins are just 10-42 (.192) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Pirates are just 58-133 (.304) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Pirates are just 58-87 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Pirates are just 3-79 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 27-53 (.338) on the road last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins have hit 2,031 balls in play with an exit velocity over 100 MPH since the start of the 2021 season — 5th most in MLB.
The Twins batted just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Twins hitters have put 40% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .450 (6,270 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 14,594 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Pirates allowed 1.70 runs per game (273/161) in late innings last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Pirates vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
Bet now on Twins vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
