- The Pirates are -140 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins starting pitcher: Aaron Sanchez, 21.60 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller, 4.09 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Minnesota Twins (+115) visit LECOM Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-140) on Saturday, March 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Bradenton.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).
The Twins vs Pirates Over/Under is 11.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Twins are 6-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 7-8 ATS.
Twins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Twins | +1.5 -155 | O 11.5 +100 | +115 |
Pirates | -1.5 +130 | U 11.5 -120 | -140 |
Twins vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 58.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gary Sanchez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Billy Hamilton has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Billy Hamilton has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ji-wan Bae has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games (+5.65 Units / 188% ROI)
- Greg Allen has hit the Runs Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.50 Units / 183% ROI)
- Josh VanMeter has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 75 of their last 160 games (+10.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 160 games (+9.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 73 away games (+6.70 Units / 8% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+8.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 6-7 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -9.97% ROI).
- 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 8.82% ROI
- 5-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -19.59% ROI
- 7-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.8 Units / 12.95% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 7-8 against the Run Line (-3.4 Units / -17.26% ROI).
- 4-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -35.35% ROI
- 10-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.6 Units / 33.43% ROI
- 4-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -41.41% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .404 (267 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .297 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .333 (62-for-186) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .258 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .280 (136-for-485) against Mitch Keller’s non-fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .221 — second Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a first-pitch strike rate of just 56% (639/1,136) since the start of the 2021 season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 62% — fourth Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 15-30 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 9-36 (.200) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins are just 10-42 (.192) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Pirates are just 58-133 (.304) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .462.
The Pirates are just 58-87 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Pirates are just 3-79 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 27-53 (.338) on the road last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins have hit 2,031 balls in play with an exit velocity over 100 MPH since the start of the 2021 season — 5th most in MLB.
The Twins batted just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Twins hitters have put 40% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .450 (6,270 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .170 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 14,594 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Pirates allowed 1.70 runs per game (273/161) in late innings last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Pirates vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
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