- The Twins are -150 favorites vs the White Sox
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- White Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito
- Watch the game on NBCS-CHI
The Minnesota Twins (-150) visit Guaranteed Rate Field to take on the Chicago White Sox (+125) on Thursday, May 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Chicago.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Twins vs White Sox Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Twins are 17-14 against the spread (ATS), while the White Sox are 14-17 ATS.
Twins vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +110 | O 7.5 -105 | -150 |
| White Sox | +1.5 -135 | U 7.5 -115 | +125 |
Twins vs White Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 66.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Twins and White Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+8.30 Units / 83% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best White Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Luis Robert has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+11.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Luis Robert has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- Eloy Jimenez has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Luis Robert has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+8.80 Units / 42% ROI)
White Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Seby Zavala | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
White Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Seby Zavala | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
White Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Seby Zavala | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -550 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
White Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lucas Giolito | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
| Pablo Lopez | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -155 |
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+5.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 31 games (+2.40 Units / 6% ROI)
White Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+5.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.25 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.00 Units / 20% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 17-14 against the Run Line (+2.4 Units / 6.37% ROI).
- 17-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.4 Units / -5.02% ROI
- 13-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -10.06% ROI
- 15-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 2.06% ROI
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 14-17 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -13.57% ROI).
- 10-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.95 Units / -31.92% ROI
- 16-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.05 Units / 8.98% ROI
- 12-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -16.47% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of 41% (73/176) against Pablo Lopez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 44% (65/148) against Pablo Lopez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 55% (46 SO in 84 PAs) with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 95th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 28% of the time (248/884) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 32% (108/343) against Lucas Giolito since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 52% (86/167) of the time this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — fourth Percentile.
68% of Lucas Giolito’s non-fastball strikeouts are located away this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 11% (2/18) against Lucas Giolito on inside fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Twins are just 5-17 (.227) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 12-31 (.279) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 14-41 (.255) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The White Sox are just 6-4 (.600) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The White Sox are 15-8 (.652) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The White Sox are just 10-53 (.159) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The White Sox are just 2-5 (.286) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 11 strikeouts in 26 PA’s (42%) against LHP over the past seven days (4 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .266 (222 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
The Twins are batting just .105 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
The Twins are batting just .191 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
White Sox hitters are slugging just .206 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.
White Sox hitters have chased 28% of pitches out of the zone in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .462 (123 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .657.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Twins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The White Sox have allowed 2.32 runs per game (72/31) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.34.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against White Sox pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
White Sox pitchers have walked 135 of 1,241 batters (11%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
White Sox pitchers have allowed a run 53% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
White Sox vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Elbow, D15
- Jacob Burger (White Sox): Oblique, D10
- Liam Hendriks (White Sox): Illness, D15
- Matthew Foster (White Sox): Forearm, D60
- Reynaldo López (White Sox): Bicep, Day-to-Day
- Yoán Moncada (White Sox): Back, D10
- Roman González (White Sox): Shoulder, D10
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
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