Germany vs. Denmark Prediction, Odds | Euro 2024

min read
Germany's Niclas Fullkrug celebrates with teammates after scoring his sides second goal during the international friendly soccer match between Germany and Netherlands at the Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany on Tuesday, March 26, 2024.
(AP Photo/Martin Meissner)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Jun 28, 2024, 9:47 AM
  • Germany (-155) is the favorite on the three-way moneyline.
  • These sides last met in a 2021 friendly, with Denmark earning a draw.
  • Is the market giving too much respect to the Germany attack?

Following a successful group round, Germany begins their knockout round with a Saturday meeting against Denmark. 

Manager Julian Nagelsmann’s side captured two wins and a draw in the group round to finish atop Group A. 

Meanwhile, Denmark – a Cinderella story from the previous Euros – finished second in Group C to England after drawing all three matches. 

Here’s a look at the Euro 2024 odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

Germany vs. Denmark Odds

  • Germany Moneyline: -155
  • Denmark Moneyline: +450
  • Draw Moneyline: +280
  • Total Goals: 2.5 (+100/-140)

Germany vs. Denmark Prediction

LEAN Germany Team Total Under 1.5 Goals (-115)

I want to fade the perception of this Germany attack, but need a better price to invest. 

Setting that aside, this game will answer the question of whether Germany was properly motivated for their final group game against Switzerland. 

Although they managed 1.56 expected goals against Switzerland, it came on 18 shots for an xG per shot value of 0.08. 

The start was even more concerning for Nagelsmann’s squad. In the first 45 minutes, Germany managed only 0.44 expected goals, with only two attempts worth more than 0.1. 

In fact, of their 1.56 xG for the match, nearly half came after the 65th minute. 

Even though Denmark displayed an inability to capture all three points in the group round, their defense remains a quality unit. 

The Danes allowed only 2.2 expected goals across all three group matches, including only 0.9 against England. 

Sample the two matches in which Denmark held under 60% possession – Germany is almost certain to dominate the ball on Saturday – and bettors will find they allowed only 0.6 xG per 90. 

Travel back further to Denmark’s last set of competitive matches and bettors will find their defense remains solid. 

Sample nine Nations League and World Cup matches from 2022 and bettors will find only two teams cleared this number against Denmark. 

Playing in a condensed low defensive block should cut off space in the middle for Germany. As a result, expect the host nation offense to struggle on Saturday.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.