Spain vs. France Prediction, Odds | Euro 2024

min read
Randal Kolo Muani and Antoine Griezmann of France celebrate their side's first goal during a round of sixteen match between France and Belgium at the Euro 2024 soccer tournament in Duesseldorf, Germany, Monday, July 1, 2024.
(AP Photo/Darko Vojinovic)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Jul 09, 2024, 9:20 AM
  • Spain (+165) is the favorite on the three-way moneyline.
  • My prediction for Tuesday's match is for a low-scoring fixture in Munich.
  • Get anytime goal scorer prices along with a prediction for total corner kicks.

On Tuesday in Munich, Spain and France will take center stage for a spot in the 2024 Euro final. 

Spain is the favorite to advance after knocking out hosts Germany in the quarterfinal. The match required extra time, with Mikel Merino’s extra-time winner proving the difference. 

As for France, they played a low-event quarterfinal match against Portugal. The sides combined for only four big chances in regular time, with France advancing on penalty kicks. 

Here’s a look at the Euro 2024 odds and my prediction for Tuesday’s match. 

Spain vs. France Odds

  • Spain Moneyline: +165
  • France Moneyline: +210
  • Draw Moneyline: +180
  • Total Goals: 1.5 (-190/+138)
  • Both Teams to Score: Yes (+110), No (-155)

Spain vs. France Prediction: Total Goals

I predict Tuesday’s Spain vs. France will stay under 1.5 goals (+138), based on the quality defensive metrics from both teams. 

Although I’d prefer to have push protection on two goals, it’s hard to see a scenario where either attack breaks through. 

For all their finishing problems, France’s defense remains outstanding. They’ve allowed the fewest expected goals in the tournament and have kept a clean sheet in four of five matches. 

Sample only regular time against Portugal, and bettors will find they allowed only 0.9 expected goals, per fotmob.com. 

France’s offense does enter Tuesday’s match a positive regression candidate, but I question if those bounces come against Spain. 

Spain did allow 1.57 xG to Germany in the quarterfinals, but 80% came after Spain gained an advantage in 51 minutes. 

The longer this game remains in a neutral state, the more I believe chances will prove sparing. 

Plus, France has created only 1.2 xG per 90 minutes in matches against the Netherlands, Belgium and Portugal. 

As a result, expect this game to prove a low-scoring affair, especially with both sides playing on tired legs.

Who will score a goal in Spain vs. France? 

Based on current betting odds, Kylian Mbappe (+190) has the best chance to score a goal in this Euro matchup. 

Mbappe is followed on the odds board by Spain’s Alvaro Morata (+240), Joselu (+260) and Ayoze Perez (+300). 

Spain vs. France: How many corner kicks will there be? 

Based on the current line of 9.5 corner kicks, I predict the UNDER will hit in Spain vs. France. 

Save for Spain’s match against Georgia, they’ve seen three of four matches where they’ve deployed their starters finish under this total. 

Although France saw their match against Portugal clear this number, their matches against Belgium and the Netherlands stayed under this number. 

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.