UFC 317: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France Predictions and Odds

Reigning undisputed UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja will defend his title for the fourth time on June 28 against the No. 4-ranked divisional contender Kai Kara-France in the co-main event of UFC 317 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

With his seven-fight win streak and recent championship success, Pantoja will be the betting favorite with -280 UFC odds heading into the title clash, while Kara-France, who lost two of his last five fights, will be the +220 betting underdog.

UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-France Odds

• Alexandre Pantoja: -280
• Kai Kara-France: +220

UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-France: Prediction

I predict that Pantoja will get the submission finish over Kara-France because of his better grappling skills, which can cause major problems for Kara-France. Although the defending champion is a well-rounded fighter, his best route to victory is his elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu background.

This flyweight championship battle will be another classic battle between a striker and a grappler, and I see this going the way of the grappler once again via submission. Pantoja has shown time and time again that he can submit the most vicious strikers in the division, much like he did against Asakura in his last fight.

Although Kara-France has the power and puncher’s chance to put the lights out of Pantoja, I still project this as one-way traffic for “The Cannibal” because he’s a very calculated athlete who doesn’t overextend or expose himself to danger. The Brazilian MMA star is well on his way to another successful title defense.

Alexandre Pantoja’s Recent Fight Results

Pantoja was a flyweight prospect when he joined the UFC because of his impressive pro record of 16 wins and two losses. He made his promotional debut against Eric Shelton in January 2017 and won via split decision. Following that successful first bout, he won eight of his next 11 fights to earn a shot at UFC gold.

In July 2023, Pantoja challenged Brandon Moreno for the UFC flyweight title and won via split decision to become the new king of the division. Then, he fended off the challenges from Brandon Royval, Steve Erceg, and, most recently, Asakura to remain the undisputed titleholder of the 125-pound weight class.

Kai Kara-France’s Recent Fight Results

Kara-France was a veteran MMA fighter when he joined the UFC in 2018. He had already racked up 17 wins, seven losses, and one draw in his pro career. He unanimously beat Elias Garcia in his octagon debut in December 2018 and won six of his next eight bouts.

The Kiwi star was matched with Moreno in July 2022 at UFC 277 for the UFC interim flyweight belt, but came up short and absorbed a third-round TKO defeat. Kara-France split the results in his last two UFC fights, with a split decision loss to Amir Albazi in June 2023 and a knockout win over Erceg last August at UFC 305.

UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-France: Tale of the Tape