UFC 317: Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano Predictions and Odds

Top lightweight contenders Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano are pitted against each other on June 28 as part of UFC 317’s main card inside the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas to potentially improve their UFC odds of earning a shot at the coveted lightweight title.

Moicano enters the contest as the -120 betting favorite because he’s the more active fighter than Dariush and took a bold risk of challenging the former UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev last January at UFC 311 on short notice.

Meanwhile, Dariush’s inactivity for 18 months has made him the +100 betting underdog, on top of his two-fight skid from his last two previous bouts inside the octagon, courtesy of Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan.

UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano Odds

• Beneil Dariush: +100
• Renato Moicano: -120

UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano: Prediction

I predict that Moicano will win the unanimous decision over Dariush because he has better striking skills than Dariush. This is going to be a battle between grapplers, and Moicano has expertise in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, while Dariush relies on his wrestling skills.

With both almost nullifying their grappling skills, this match could end up in a striking affair, and Moicano has the clear advantage in this department, given that he has already shown his calibre in this area and fought with vicious other strikers in the division.

Although Dariush holds more TKO/KO finishes, I still think Moicano can set the tone in the stand-up exchanges and impose his 2-inch advantage in leg reach to fire them at Dariush. Add the fact that this will be Dariush’s comeback fight in over a year, as he may have a ring rust.

Dariush can’t just go for a takedown against Moicano to potentially neutralize his striking because Moicano is a sneaky submission artist who can devise various submission maneuvers in scrambles and clinch battles.

Beneil Dariush’s Recent Fight Results

Dariush is an 11-year UFC veteran who made his promotional debut in January 2014 with a submission win over Charlie Brenneman. Before this, he had a perfect MMA record of 6-0 outside the Las Vegas-based promotion. Since then, Dariush became one of the most active fighters on the roster and has competed in 22 fights.

During this stretch, he accumulated 15 wins, six losses, and one draw to become a ranked fighter in the 155-pound weight class. However, Dariush dropped his last two fights to Oliveira in June 2023 and Tsarukyan in December 2023, both via first-round stoppage losses.

Renato Moicano’s Recent Fight Results

Moicano joined the UFC in December 2014 as a former Jungle Fight champion. He first fought in the featherweight division and racked up five wins and three losses in his first eight matches inside the octagon. In 2020, he decided to move up in the lightweight division, eventually becoming one of the top contenders.

Since moving up to the 155-pound weight class, Moicano has won six of his eight matches, which include notable opponents such as Jai Herbert, Brad Riddell, Drew Dober, Jalin Turner, and Benoit Saint Denis.

Last January, the Brazilian MMA star took a massive risk and stepped in on a day’s notice to face Makhachev for the UFC lightweight belt at UFC 311, but came up short with a first-round submission defeat.

UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicano: Tale of the Tape