UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

The vacant UFC lightweight title will be up for grabs on June 28, as former UFC featherweight champion Ilia Topuria and current No. 2-ranked lightweight contender Charles Oliveira battle in the main event of the UFC 317 PPV card inside the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Because of his perfect MMA record and an incredible back-to-back knockout victories, Topuria heads into the match as the betting favorite with -420 UFC odds. On the other hand, despite being the former divisional king and his immense experience in the 155-pound weight class, Oliveira is going to be the +315 betting underdog.

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Odds

• Ilia Topuria: -420
• Charles Oliveira: +315

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira: Prediction

With Topuria’s incredible punching and pinpoint accuracy, I predict he’ll finish Oliveira via knockout in their lightweight championship clash. This was the same man who knocked out Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway last year, and I don’t see a reason why he can’t do the same with Oliveira.

Although Topuria is moving up in weight, I still believe he would bring the same power that allowed him to dominate in the 145-pound weight class. Apart from his elite boxing skills, “El Matador” also has a solid BJJ background, which is key in defending Oliveira’s submission threats throughout the bout.

Meanwhile, “Do Bronx” can fully utilize his height and leg reach advantage to keep Topuria at bay because of the vicious front kicks available for him. Additionally, Oliveira can also put pressure on Topuria by cutting off the angles and pressing him against the cage. This way, he can neutralize Topuria’s boxing combinations and drain his energy with grappling battles.

However, I still think Topuria will get the job done at this stage, especially since he’s still at the peak of his career at 28, and Oliveira’s athleticism may have diminished at 35. Ultimately, Oliveira has shown multiple times that he can be dropped instantly, and with Topuria’s power, I think his chin won’t hold up that long.

Ilia Topuria’s Recent Fight Results

Topuria is an undefeated MMA fighter who was also a former Cage Warriors bantamweight champion before he made his UFC debut in October 2020 against Youssef Zalal and won via unanimous decision. Since then, he swept his next five fights to earn a shot at featherweight gold.

In February 2024, Topuria challenged Volkanovski for the UFC featherweight title and knocked him out in the second round. Then fended off the challenge of former divisional king Holloway last October with another third-round vicious knockout to retain the belt.

Charles Oliveira’s Recent Fight Results

Oliveira is a 15-year UFC veteran who has 33 fights under the Las Vegas-based promotion. He first competed in the featherweight division, where he had an up-and-down campaign and came up short in earning a title shot. But since moving to the lightweight division, the Brazilian submission artist has found success.

Oliveira captured the UFC lightweight belt in May 2021 when he defeated Michael Chandler via second-round TKO. He then defended the championship against Dustin Poirier in December 2021 at UFC 269. However, he lost the belt due to a weight miss in May 2022 at UFC 274 against Justin Gaethje.

Since that win over Gaethje, “Do Bronx” has split his next four fights with wins over Beneil Dariush and Chandler in their rematch, while he absorbed defeats from Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan in October 2022 and April 2024, respectively.

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira: Tale of the Tape

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Fight Card

• Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira, UFC lightweight title match
• Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France, flyweight title match
• Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van, flyweight match 
• Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano, lightweight match
• Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima, bantamweight match
• Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues, middleweight match
• Hyder Amil vs. Jose Miguel Delgado, featherweight match
• Viviane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez, women’s flyweight match
• Terrance McKinney vs. Viacheslav vs. Borshchev, lightweight match
• Sedriques Dumas vs. Jackson McVey, middleweight match
• Jhonata Diniz vs. Alvin Hines, heavyweight match
• Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith, welterweight match