UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

Reigning undisputed UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall defends his title for the first time against No. 1-ranked Ciryl Gane in the main event of UFC 321 on Oct. 25 inside Etihad Arena in the UAE.

Aspinall, who was elevated as the new king of the weight class last June due to Jon Jones’ retirement and relinquishment of the belt, will be the betting favorite heading into the match with -420 UFC odds.

Meanwhile, Gane is the +315 betting underdog primarily because this is his third shot at the belt, and he failed to capitalize in his first two attempts.

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane Odds

• Tom Aspinall: -420
• Cyril Gane: +315

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane: Prediction

I predict a TKO/KO finish for Aspinall within two rounds because of the one-punch knockout power that he has. Additionally, he has the killer instinct to finish his opponents, which is evident in his TKO/KO rate of 100%.

Once the lethal right-hand punch of Aspinall lands, it significantly compromises the opposition. He’s also very accurate with his offense and does a good job of closing the distance with caution without overextending.

To be fair, Gane is also a mobile heavyweight fighter who has a great Muay Thai background. He has great teeps and front kicks to keep his opponents at bay. However, his strategy has always been frustrating his opponents with an in-and-out approach.

It feels like he’s point fighting and just wants to showcase that he’s faster than most heavyweight fighters. Gane also doesn’t have a one-strike knockout power, which is why he likes to throw a bunch of strikes throughout a fight.

Another massive factor to consider in this match is Aspinall’s fight IQ. He can instantly adjust his approach according to his opponent’s strategy. The defending champion is also eager to prove that he’s not just a paper champion, so I think he’ll go for a finish.

Tom Aspinall’s Recent Fight Results

Aspinall had a 7-2 win-loss record when he was signed by the UFC in July 2020. He fought Jake Collier in his octagon debut and finished him in just 45 seconds. Then, he quickly added four more wins against Alan Baudot, Andrei Arlovski, Serghei Spivac, and Alexander Volkov.

In July 2022, he sustained his first UFC loss, courtesy of Curtis Blaydes, with a first-round TKO loss due to a knee injury. But he bounced back with a first-round finish of Marcin Tybura in July 2023.

The British MMA superstar accepted a short-notice fight against Sergei Pavlovich in November 2023 at UFC 295 for the UFC interim heavyweight title, and he maximized the opportunity with another first-round finish.

In his last fight, he successfully defended his interim belt against Blaydes in their July 2024 rematch. Earlier this year, he was promoted as the undisputed heavyweight champion after Jones vacated the belt via retirement.

Ciryl Gane’s Recent Fight Results

Gane has been with the UFC since 2019, and he has an impressive submission victory against Raphael Pessoa in his promotional debut. The French MMA contender quickly added five more wins to his resume to earn his shot at the UFC interim heavyweight belt in August 2021 against Derrick Lewis.

“Bon Gamin” stopped Lewis in the third round of their match to set up a unification fight with Francis Ngannou in January 2022 at UFC 270. However, he came up short in winning the coveted title with a unanimous decision defeat.

After a win against Tai Tuivasa in September 2022, Gane was once again booked to fight for the UFC heavyweight title versus Jones in March 2023. He got submitted in the first round. Since then, he won his last two fights against Spivac and Volkov in their rematch last December.

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane: Tale of the Tape

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane Fight Card

• Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane, UFC heavyweight championship fight
• Virna Jandiroba vs. MacKenzie Dern, UFC women’s strawweight championship fight
• Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista, bantamweight fight
• Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida, heavyweight fight
• Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov, light heavyweight fight
• Ikram Aliskerov vs. Junyong Park, middleweight fight
• Ludovit Klein vs. Mateusz Rebecki, lightweight fight
• Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Matheus Camilo, lightweight fight
• Nathaniel Wood vs. Jose Miguel Delgado, featherweight fight
• Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Chris Barnett, heavyweight fight
• Azat Maksum vs. Mitch Raposo, flyweight fight
• Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki, women’s strawweight fight