UFC 321: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista Predictions & Odds

An all-important bantamweight match will be part of the UFC 321 main card on Oct. 25, as former title challenger Umar Nurmagomedov takes on Mario Bautista in a potential title eliminator fight inside Etihad Arena in the UAE.

Nurmagomedov is the considerable betting favorite with -420 UFC odds because of his elite grappling skills and better record. Bautista, on the other hand, is the overwhelming betting underdog with +315 even though he’s on an eight-fight win streak.

UFC 321: Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista Odds

• Umar Nurmagomedov: -420
• Mario Bautista: +315

UFC 321: Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista: Prediction

I predict a TKO/KO finish for Nurmagomedov over Bautista since he’s the superior grappler and his striking skills are constantly improving. He’s also coming off a close fight against Merab Dvalishvili, which will only make him better, even if he lost.

Bautista likes to pressure his opponents, but Nurmagomedov doesn’t mind fighting on the back foot since he has impeccable counterattacks. It won’t be an ideal strategy for Bautista to advance and be aggressive in the early stages of the match because Nurmagomedov can use this to his advantage.

Nurmagomedov will happily accept the forward pressure from Bautista since he’ll be at the center of the octagon once the Russian MMA star shoots for a takedown, and he won’t be able to use the fence to defend.

Once Nurmagomedov gets a hold of Bautista, he can work his way into a ground-and-pound finish instead of a submission maneuver because the American contender is also a solid submission artist himself.

Umar Nurmagomedov’s Recent Fight Results

Nurmagomedov was the former GFC champion before he joined the UFC. He made his promotional debut against Sergey Morozov and got the second-round submission win over him. He quickly added five more victories to his record after that Morozov win.

This incredible streak earned him a shot at UFC gold last January against Dvalishvili at UFC 311. However, he came up short and sustained a unanimous decision loss courtesy of “The Machine.” It was also his first pro career setback.

Mario Bautista’s Recent Fight Results

Bautista was an undefeated prospect in 2018 when the UFC signed him. He had a shaky start in the promotion with a 2-2 win-loss card, with wins over Jin Soo Son and Miles Johns and losses to Cory Sandhagen and Trevin Jones.

Since that second career loss, Bautista hasn’t dropped a fight and is currently on an eight-fight streak. During this stretch, he scored wins against Jay Perrin, Brian Kelleher, Benito Lopez, Da’Mon Blackshear, Ricky Simon, Jose Aldo, and, most recently, Patchy Mix.

UFC 321: Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista: Tale of the Tape