The light heavyweight clash between young prospects Rafael Tobias and Diyar Nurgozhay goes down this Saturday as part of the UFC 326 card inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Due to his two-fight losing streak, Nurgozhay is going to be the betting underdog with +165 UFC odds; while Tobias, who will make his octagon debut, heads into the bout as the -200 betting favorite.
UFC 326: Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay Fight Odds
- Rafael Tobias: -200
- Diyar Nurgozhay: +165
UFC 326: Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurzgozhay: Tale of the Tape
| Rafael Tobias | Diyar Nurzgozhay | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 22 | 28 |
| Height | 6’2” | 6’2” |
| Reach | 74.5 inches | 74 inches |
| Leg Reach | 42 inches | 40 inches |
| Record | 14-1 | 10-2 |
| Fighting Style | MMA | Striker |
| Finishing Rate | 79% | 80% |
UFC 326: Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay: Prediction
With his grappling skills being far superior and at a different level, I predict that Tobias will win via submission over Nurgozhay. He’s not only a one-trick pony who always looks to get a submission finish, but he also uses his striking to set up his submissions.
I think his fight plan is to bait Nurgozhay into an early striking exchange before timing a level change and a takedown. From there, he’ll work his way into a finish with his quick and sleek Brazilian jiu-jitsu submissions, especially the rear-naked choke.
Rafael Tobias’ Recent Fight Results
Tobias is a highly touted prospect from Brazil who competed in various fight promotions in South America before he joined Dana White’s Contender Series in September. He fought Jair de Oliveira and submitted him in the opening round to secure a UFC contract.
Diyar Nurgozhay’s Recent Fight Results
Nurgozhay was the former Eagle FC champion, and he joined Dana White’s Contender Series in October 2024, where he stopped Bartosz Szewczyk to earn a roster spot. However, in his first two bouts inside the octagon, he went winless with losses to Brendon Ribeiro and Uran Satybaldiev.
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