The lightweight showdown between Dana White Contender Series alums Grant Dawson and Mateusz Rebecki is scheduled to go down Saturday at UFC 328 inside Prudential Center in Newark.
Dawson and Rebecki are coming off defeats in their most recent bouts, but Dawson heads into the match as the slight betting favorite with -180 UFC odds. Meanwhile, Rebecki is going to be the betting underdog with +150 odds.
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki Fight Odds
- Grant Dawson: -180
- Mateusz Rebecki: +150
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki: Tale of the Tape
| Grant Dawson | Mateusz Rebecki | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 33 |
| Height | 5’10” | 5’7” |
| Reach | 72 inches | 66 inches |
| Leg Reach | 40 inches | 36.5 inches |
| Record | 23-3-1 | 20-4 |
| Fighting Style | Brazilian jiu-jitsu | Brazilian jiu-jitsu |
| Finishing Rate | 78% | 80% |
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki: Prediction
With better grappling and takedowns, I predict a unanimous decision win for Dawson over Rebecki. Both are tremendous grapplers and savage submission artists, but I think Dawson controls his opponents better, especially if he secures the top position.
Rebecki will give up 6 inches of reach and 3.5 inches of leg reach disadvantage to Dawson, which means he’ll need to cover more distance if he wants to land a strike. Dawson can use this as leverage for a perfect level change to secure a takedown.
The only thing Dawson should avoid is the looping punches he throws, where he dips his head too low and lunges forward. This can be used by Dawson to fire a counter that could potentially hurt him and change the complexity of the match.
Grant Dawson’s Recent Fight Results
Dawson has been with the UFC since 2019. He has only dropped two fights in 14 appearances inside the octagon. His record in his last five fights is three wins (Joe Solecki, Rafa Garcia, and Diego Ferreira) and two losses (King Green and Manuel Torres).
Mateusz Rebecki’s Recent Fight Results
Rebecki was a former FEN champion before he joined Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022. He secured a roster spot with a first-round submission win over Rodrigo Lidio. Since then, he racked up four wins and three losses under the promotion. Rebecki is currently on a two-fight skid.
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