An all-Brazilian light heavyweight match between Rafael Tobias and Lucas Fernando will be part of the UFC 330 prelim card on Saturday inside the Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia.
Even though he’s the debutant, Fernando enters the match as the betting favorite with -300 UFC odds, while Tobias, who lost his first match inside the octagon, is going to be the +240 betting underdog.
UFC 330: Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando Fight Odds
- Rafael Tobias: +240
- Lucas Fernando: -300
UFC 330: Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando: Tale of the Tape
| Rafael Tobias | Lucas Fernando | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 23 | 29 |
| Height | 6’2” | 6’3” |
| Reach | 74.5 inches | 80 inches |
| Leg Reach | 42 inches | 41.5 inches |
| Record | 14-2 | 13-3 |
| Fighting Style | MMA | MMA |
| Finishing Rate | 79% | 82% |
UFC 330: Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando: Prediction
I predict a TKO/KO finish for Fernando over Tobias mainly because of the speed advantage for the former. Fernando throws his combinations at a rapid rate, and I think he’ll be able to land several clean shots on Tobias.
Tobias did have the same problem in his UFC debut against Diyar Nurgozhay, when he was having a hard time keeping up with his pace and defending combinations. However, his check hook can be a very good counterpunch he can use to stop Fernando’s offense momentarily.
But Fernando has more than enough variety in his striking arsenal to inflict significant damage against Tobias. He can throw calf kicks to beat up the lead leg, target the head and body with punches, and even shoot takedowns to threaten submissions.
Rafael Tobias’ Recent Fight Results
Tobias’ route to the UFC was via Dana White’s Contender Series in September, where he submitted Jair de Oliveira in the opening round to secure a UFC contract. However, he was rudely welcomed to the promotion by Nurzgozhay, who handed him a unanimous decision defeat at UFC 326.
Lucas Fernando’s Recent Fight Results
Fernando’s first attempt to crack a roster spot in the UFC was foiled in August 2023 when he was defeated by César Almeida in Dana White’s Contender Series. But with his current four-fight win streak in LFA, he was given another shot at the promotion.
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