UFC Fight Night: Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett Odds, Predictions

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(AP Photo/Gregory Payan)
BetMGM Staff @BETMGM Jun 17, 2022, 12:36 PM

The main event features a top-10 UFC Featherweight bout between Calvin “The Boston Finisher” Kattar and Josh “The Fighting Falmer” Emmett. Kattar is coming off back-to-back Fight of the Night performances and is 7-3 in the UFC, while Emmett has won four straight and is 8-2 in his 10 UFC fights.

UFC odds have Kattar as a big favorite and it should be a great night of UFC betting.

Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett Fight Details

FW – (c) Calvin Kattar (23-5-0) vs. FW – #2 Josh Emmett (17-2-1)

Date: Saturday, June 18, 2022 | Time: 4:20 p.m. ET

Venue: Moody Center – Austin, Texas | TV: ESPN2

Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett Odds

Odds to Win: Kattar -240 | Emmett +195

How Will Fight End: KO/TKO/DQ +125 | Submission +700 | Decision -135

Will the fight go the distance? Yes -135 | No +100

Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett Analysis

Calvin Kattar is one of the better boxers in the featherweight division and is fresh off beating highly touted striker Giga Chikadze. The contest before was a decision loss to the UFC Featherweight Champion Max Holloway. Kattar has notable knockouts of both Jeremy Stephens and Ricardo Lamas. The only time Kattar was finished was in 2008 by a James Jones rear-naked choke.

Meanwhile, Emmett hasn’t been as active but does have knockout wins over Michael Johnson, Mirsad Bektic, and Lamas in his past six fights. The last time Emmett tasted defeat was a 2017 knockout loss to Stephens, the only time he’s been finished in his career.

Kattar will be the much larger fighter on fight night, with a five-inch height advantage and two-inch reach advantage. Unfortunately for Emmett, Kattar knows how to fight at range as well. The Boston Finisher claims 48% of his wins by knockout, while The Fighting Falmer sits at 35%.

Emmett has more one-punch knockout power, averaging 1.38 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Kattar’s 0.51. Both fighters average over ten minutes of fight time, with Kattar at 14:40 and Emmett at 11:59.

This fight will primarily take place on the feet, and the volume of significant strikes will play heavily into the result. Kattar lands 0.91 more significant strikes per minute, but that usually comes with allowing more damage. In this case, Kattar absorbs 3.54 more significant strikes per minute.

Emmett has a wrestling background but chooses to strike rather than grapple. Several injuries may have made that choice for him. Neither fighter has an extensive submission finish rate, with 0.1 and 0.13 submissions per 15 minutes.

At rates that low, it doesn’t matter who they belong to. Emmett averages 1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes to Kattar’s 0.51. However, Kattar has an 89 percent takedown defense rate, which re-enforces the unlikelihood that this bout hits the mat.

Despite Emmett’s solid striking defense, Kattar’s size and length will dictate the distance. If Katar was an inferior striker, Emmett could be a sneaky pick. If I learned anything from his most recent win, Kattar is not a run-of-the-mill striker. At +195, Emmett is probably undervalued and should be considered a live dog.

Still, there’s an excellent chance that Kattar overwhelms Emmett and lands at will. There isn’t much value with Kattar as an outright bet, but a finish by KO/TKO or DQ holds some value at +200.

Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett Predictions

The Picks: Kattar by KO/TKO or DQ (+200)

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Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.

Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.