UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

The MMA action continues inside UFC APEX in Las Vegas on Nov. 8, as Gabriel Bonfim defends his position in the top 15 rankings against veteran Randy Brown in the main event of UFC Fight Night card.

As the younger fighter with the better pro record, Bonfim heads into the match as the slight betting favorite with -180 UFC odds. He currently rides a three-fight win streak to earn a spot in the division’s rankings.

Brown, on the other hand, is going to be the +145 betting underdog, despite having more experience competing inside the octagon. He has been with the UFC since 2016 and has had a roller-coaster career under the promotion.

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown Odds

• Gabriel Bonfim: -180
• Randy Brown: +145

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown: Prediction

I predict a submission victory for Bonfim over Brown, as he’ll impose his superior grappling skills during the fight. Despite the Brazilian contender giving up sizable height, reach, and leg reach disadvantages to his Jamaican opposition, I still think he’ll be able to get him down.

Bonfim can use Brown’s length to his advantage by timing a perfect level change to catch him off guard and attempt a takedown. And once he gets a hold of Brown, he’ll be able to work his way into a submission maneuver.

Bonfim used this approach against Stephen Thompson in his previous fight to neutralize Thompson’s striking. He almost finished “Wonderboy” in the opening round with a neck crank submission attempt.

Meanwhile, Brown effectively uses his reach and leg reach advantages to inflict damage on his opponents. His massive wingspan has caused problems for several other contenders because he doesn’t need to cover a lot of distance when throwing his strikes.

However, he has been exposed multiple times in the grappling department, where he has been submitted twice. He must go for an early knockout against Bonfim because, as the fight progresses, his gas tank might not be able to hold up for the full five rounds and potentially get submitted in the latter rounds.

Gabriel Bonfim’s Recent Fight Results

Bonfim was an undefeated prospect when he joined Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2022. He fought Trey Waters in the competition and got a first-round submission finish to secure a UFC contract.

He made his octagon debut against Mounir Lazzez in January 2023 and scored another first-round submission victory. Since then, he has won four of his next fights, and his most recent win was against Stephen Thompson last July.

Randy Brown’s Recent Fight Results

Brown was the former Ring of Combat champion when the UFC signed him in 2016. After a debut win against Matt Dwyer, he had an up-and-down campaign in the promotion, as he recorded 13 wins and six losses.

Several of his most notable wins were against Mickey Gall, Bryan Barberena, and Jared Gordon. Michael Graves, Belal Muhammad, Niko Price, Vicente Luque, Jack Della Maddalena, and Bryan Battle handed him his career setbacks. 

He’s coming off a second-round stoppage win over Nicolas Dalby last April to return to the win column and set up this showdown with the Brazilian submission artist.

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown: Tale of the Tape

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown Fight Card

• Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown, welterweight fight
• Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales, flyweight fight
• Muslim Salikhov vs. Uros Medic, welterweight fight
• Chris Padilla vs. Ismael Bonfim, lightweight fight
• Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos, bantamweight fight
• Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Marco Tulio, middleweight fight
• Hyder Amil vs. Jamall Emmers, featherweight fight
• Adrian Yanez vs. Christian Quinonez, bantamweight fight
• Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti, women’s bantamweight fight
• Josh Hokit vs. Max Gimenis, heavyweight fight
• Tecia Pennington vs. Denise Gomes, women’s strawweight fight
• Miles Johns vs. Daniel Marcos, bantamweight fight
• Jackson McVey vs. Robert Valentin, middleweight fight