UFC Fight Night Odds & Prediction: Rob Font vs. Marlon Vera

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(AP Photo/Gregory Payan)
BetMGM Staff @BETMGM Apr 29, 2022, 1:03 PM

UFC Fight Night is set for Saturday, April 30 at the UFC Apex in Enterprise, Nevada.

It should be a great night for UFC betting.

The main event features Rob Font vs. Marlon Vera in the bantamweight division. Font is coming off a loss to Jose Aldo but won four in a row before that. Vera has a two-fight win streak going but lost to Aldo three fights ago.

Here are fight details, UFC odds, and predictions:

Rob Font vs. Marlon Vera Fight Details

BW – #5 Rob Font (19-5-0) vs. BW – #8 Marlon Vera (18-7-1)

Date: Saturday, April 30, 2022 | Time: 5:30 PM ET

Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | Broadcast Coverage: ESPN 2

Rob Font vs. Marlon Vera Odds

Odds to Win: Font -140 | Vera +115

How Will Fight End: KO/TKO/DQ +175 | Submission +450 | Decision -155

Will the fight go the distance? Yes -155 | No +110

Rob Font vs. Marlon Vera Analysis

Rob Font has been fighting in the UFC since 2014, making his bantamweight debut at UFC 175. In 13 UFC fights, Font has only lost to four fighters: Aldo, Raphael Assuncao, Pedro Munhoz, and John Lineker. Munhoz has been the only fighter in Font’s career to finish him.

Marlon Vera also began his UFC career in 2014, first appearing at UFC 180. He’s been in the Octagon 18 times, losing six UFC fights. He’s dropped contests to Aldo, Song Yadong, Douglas Silva de Andrade, Lineker, Davey Grant, and Marco Beltran. However, we should take into consideration that his loss to Yadong was at featherweight. Also, Vera has never been finished in his career, losing every time by decision.

Both fighters are listed at 5-foot-8, but Font will have a one-inch reach advantage. They have a similar knockout rate, Font at 42% and Vera at 37%. Chito has a better submission rate at 42% to Font’s 21%. They also have similar average fight times, clocking in at 11 minutes and change.

Font has a 0.6 knockdown average per 15 minutes, which is 0.15 better than Vera’s 0.45.

The differences between the two are very small, but Font has a slight edge in striking.

Font lands 5.64 significant strikes per minute, while Vera lands 4.08. The difference in the number of landed strikes doesn’t seem important, but also Font absorbs 0.72 fewer significant strikes per minute. Usually, we’ll see fighters that land more strikes absorb more, so it’s noteworthy that Font can land at a higher volume but still get hit less.

Vera has the better takedown defense and averages 0.77 more submissions per 15 minutes. However, Font lands 0.28 more takedowns per 15 minutes. Both fighters have good takedown defense, so the fight will likely occur predominantly on the feet. Still, Vera will be more of a submission threat than Font.

This contest looks to be a very close fight.

The skill level of the lower weight classes is exceptionally high, so minor advantages play significant roles in who comes out on top. Since I am predicting that this fight will primarily be a standup war, Font seems like the probable winner. Also, both of these fighters have been traditionally impossible to finish, so it’s most likely headed to a decision.

Font and Vera have several Performance of the Night awards to their name, so regardless of who wins it should be an exciting bout.

Rob Font vs. Marlon Vera Prediction

The Picks: Font by Decision (+150), Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-155)

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Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.

Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.