UFC 276: Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier Odds & Predictions

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(AP Photo/Andy Brownbill)
BetMGM Staff @BETMGM Jul 01, 2022, 1:25 PM

The Middleweight Championship headlines UFC 276 with Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya defending his title against Jared “Tha Killa Gorilla” Cannonier. Adesanya has won all 11 of his UFC middleweight fights, losing only once in a light heavyweight title fight. Cannonier has won five of his six UFC fights at middleweight as he made his way down from heavyweight.

UFC odds have Adesanya as a heavy favorite.

Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier Fight Details

MW – (c) Israel Adesanya (22-1-0) vs. MW – #2 Jared Cannonier (15-5-0)

Date: Saturday, July 2, 2022 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET

Venue: T-Mobile Arena – Paradise, Nevada | TV: PPV

Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier Odds

Odds to Win: Adesanya -475 | Cannonier +365

How Will Fight End: KO/TKO/DQ -105 | Submission +900 | Decision -110

Will the fight go the distance? Yes -110 | No -120

Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier Analysis

Adesanya has run through the UFC’s middleweight division, beating the likes of Robert Whittaker, Marvin Vettori, Paulo Costa, Yoel Romero, Kelvin Gastelum, Anderson Silva, Derek Brunson, Brad Tavares, and Rob Wilkinson.

Meanwhile, Cannonier made his way to the UFC in 2015 as an undefeated fighter through seven bouts. In the UFC, he went 1-1 at heavyweight and 2-3 at light heavyweight but has gone 5-1 at middleweight. At 185 pounds, Cannonier has beaten David Branch, Silva, Jack Hermansson, Gastelum, and Brunson, only losing to Whittaker. Although he finished Brunson in his last fight, Cannonier was in trouble at the end of the first round.

Even though Cannonier is a former heavyweight, Adesanya will have a five-inch height and 2.5-inch reach advantage. Both fighters win by KO/TKO at similar rates, at 68 and 67%. Adesanya wins a decision 32% of the time, while Cannonier wins on the scorecards 20%. Adesanya has never won by submission, and only 13% of Cannonier’s wins have been by submission.

It’s expected that Cannonier will have a power advantage, but Adesanya averages 0.28 more knockdowns per 15 minutes. The experience will be heavily in Adesanya’s favor, having three more contests and averaging 7:30 more fight time. The striking battle between these two will be fascinating.

Adesanya lands 3.84 significant strikes per minute, while Cannonier lands 3.76. However, the big difference will be their defenses. Although Cannonier has a similar output, he absorbs 0.73 more significant strikes per minute.

Neither fighter usually looks to take their fights to the mat, so don’t expect many grappling exchanges or submission attempts (if any). One aspect of this matchup that hasn’t been talked about a lot is that Cannonier is six years older than the champ and only two years shy of 40.

In addition to his reach, Adesanya will likely enjoy a speed advantage. With both fighters having power on the feet, and a lack of a takedown threat, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of ways for Cannonier to win this fight. Based on what we’ve seen over their past few fights, Tha Killa Gorilla will have difficulty landing cleanly on the Last Stylebender.

Expect Adesanya to find his distance and pick the challenger apart, either finding a late finish or winning a decision.

Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier Prediction

The Picks: Adesanya by Decision/Technical Decision (+100), Adesanya KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 (+1100)

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Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.

Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.