UFC Long Island: Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez Odds & Predictions

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(AP Photo/John Locher)
BetMGM Staff @BETMGM Jul 15, 2022, 1:11 PM

A featherweight bout headlines UFC Long Island as former UFC Featherweight title contender Brian Ortega takes on Yair Rodriguez.

The UFC odds have Ortega as a slight favorite.

Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez Details

FW – #2 Brian Ortega (15-2-0, 1 NC) vs. FW – #3 Yair Rodriguez (14-3-0, 1 NC)

Date: Saturday, July 16, 2022 | Time: 2:00 p.m. ET

Venue: UBS Arena – Elmont, New York | TV: ABC

Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez Odds

Odds to Win: Ortega -175 | Rodriguez +145

How Will Fight End: KO/TKO/DQ +200 | Submission +200 | Decision +100

Will the fight go the distance? Yes +100 | No -140

Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez Analysis

Brian Ortega entered the UFC as an exciting submission fighter but has developed into a well-rounded mixed martial artist.

The Brazilian Jiu-jitsu black belt is coming off a loss to UFC Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski. His only other loss was to then UFC Featherweight Champion Max Holloway. Outside of those two title losses, Ortega is undefeated.

He has six UFC wins (and a seventh that was overturned), including victories over Thiago Tavares, Diego Brandao, Clay Guida, Renato Moicano, Cub Swanson, Frankie Edgar, and Chan Sung Jung. Aside from the Korean Zombie fight, Ortega has won all his UFC fights by finishing his opponent.

Meanwhile, Yair Rodriguez is 8-2-0 with one no-contest in the UFC. Rodriguez has UFC wins over Leonardo Morales, Charles Rosa, Dan Hooker, Andre Fili, Alex Caceres, B.J. Penn, Chan Sung Jung, and Jeremy Stephens.

Rodriguez also has a loss to Holloway on his record, but unlike Ortega, he was able to last until a decision. He was also able to finish the Korean Zombie, where Ortega went to a decision.

When the two enter the cage on Saturday, Rodriguez will have a three-inch height and two-inch reach advantage. He also gets a higher percentage of his wins from knockouts at 36% to Ortega’s 20%. However, Ortega may have the power advantage, averaging 0.25 more knockdowns per 15 minutes.

Ortega wins substantially more of his fights by submission at 47%, while Rodriguez owns a respectable 21% of his wins to submissions.

Both fighters land at volume. Ortega averages 4.15 significant strikes per minute, and Rodriguez lands 4.65. One big difference is Rodriguez doesn’t take as much punishment despite landing at a high volume, absorbing 2.6 fewer significant strikes per minute.

Their takedowns per 15 minutes are almost identical at 0.87 and 0.86, as well as their takedown defense at 56 and 60%. Where Rodriguez has the advantage in striking, Ortega has the edge in submissions. Ortega averages 1.19 submissions per 15 minutes to Rodriguez’s 0.76.

The two combatants are very similar statistically, with slight differences. The size and striking advantage will play into a Rodriguez decision, but Ortega is a known finisher. If this is anything like a typical Ortega fight, he could be losing the entire time to Rodriguez but somehow finish the fight by catching him in a submission during a scramble.

The safer play might be Rodriguez by decision at +325, but Ortega winning by submission is also a real possibility at +200. Either bet pays well and has an excellent chance of paying off.

Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez Prediction

The Picks: Ortega by Submission (+200), Rodriguez by Decision/Technical Decision (+325)

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Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.

Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.