Former UFC flyweight champion Brandon Moreno will face the No. 10-ranked contender Lone’er Kavanagh in the main event of UFC Mexico on Saturday, which takes place inside Arena CDMX.
Both are coming off losses in their previous fights, but due to his championship experience, Moreno will be the betting favorite with -210 UFC odds. Kavanagh is going to be the betting underdog with +175 odds mainly because he’s the late-notice replacement opponent.
UFC Mexico: Moreno vs. Kavanagh Fight Odds
- Brandon Moreno: -210
- Lone’er Kavanagh: +175
UFC Mexico: Moreno vs. Kavanagh: Tale of the Tape
| Brandon Moreno | Lone’er Kavanagh | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 26 |
| Height | 5’7” | 5’6” |
| Reach | 70 inches | 67 inches |
| Leg Reach | 38 inches | 36.5 inches |
| Record | 23-9-2 | 9-1 |
| Fighting Style | Jiu-jitsu | Kickboxer |
| Finishing Rate | 70% | 56% |
UFC Mexico: Moreno vs. Kavanagh: Prediction
I predict a submission victory for Moreno over Kavanagh, as Moreno’s grappling is superior and Kavanagh is a stand-up fighter. Moreno is a very well-rounded athlete, and when he fights strikers, he usually takes them down to neutralize their striking skills.
Although Moreno is a solid striker as well, backed by his elite boxing skills, I still think he’ll choose a grappling-heavy approach and not underestimate Kavanagh’s power and speed. Additionally, the championship experience will be on Moreno’s side.
Lastly, as hungry and eager as Kavanagh is, he’s a short-notice opponent replacement for Asu Almabayev, who was the original opponent of Moreno but was forced to withdraw due to a hand injury. I think that the short preparation time for him won’t get the job done against the calibre of the former two-time UFC flyweight king.
Brandon Moreno’s Recent Fight Results
Moreno was a two-time UFC flyweight champion, but in his last five bouts, he recorded only two wins, against Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg. His losses were courtesy of Alexandre Pantoja, Brandon Royval, and Tatsuro Taira.
Lone’er Kavanagh’s Recent Fight Results
Kavanagh was a former standout at Cage Warriors before joining Dana White’s Contender Series in 2024 and earning a UFC contract with a win over An Tuan Ho. In his first three matches inside the octagon, he defeated Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos before Charles Johnson handed him his first career loss.
UFC Mexico: Moreno vs. Kavanagh: Fight Card
- Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh, flyweight fight
- Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez, bantamweight fight
- Daniel Zellhuber vs. King Green, lightweight fight
- Edgar Chairez vs. Felipe Burns, flyweight fight
- Imanol Rodriguez vs. Kevin Borjas, flyweight fight
- Santiago Luna vs. Angel Pacheco, bantamweight fight
- Ryan Gandra vs. Jose Daniel Medina, middleweight fight
- Ailin Perez vs. Macy Chiasson, women’s bantamweight fight
- Cristian Quinonez vs. Kris Moutinho, bantamweight fight
- Douglas Silva De Andrade vs. Javier Reyes, featherweight fight
- Sofia Montenegro vs. Ernesta Kareckaite, women’s flyweight fight
- Erik Silva vs. Francis Marshall, featherweight fight
- Damian Pinas vs. Wes Schultz, middleweight fight
UFC Betting at the Online Sportsbook
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