UFC Mexico: Sofia Montenegro vs. Ernesta Kareckaite Predictions & Odds

Brazil's Ariane da Silva, left, exchanges punches with China's Wang Cong during the first round of a women's flyweight bout.
(AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
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Young women’s flyweight contenders Sofia Montenegro and Ernesta Kareckaite are set to throw it down on Saturday as part of the UFC Mexico card at Arena CDMX.

As the fighter who has experience fighting inside the octagon, Kareckaite heads into the bout as the betting favorite with -300 UFC odds. Montenegro, who lost his previous fight at Dana White’s Contender Series, is going to be the +240 betting underdog.

UFC Mexico: Sofia Montenegro vs. Ernesta Kareckaite Fight Odds

  • Sofia Montenegro: +240
  • Ernesta Kareckaite: -300

UFC Mexico: Sofia Montenegro vs. Ernesta Kareckaite: Tale of the Tape

Sofia MontenegroErnesta Kareckaite
Age2627
Height5’6”5’9”
Reach67 inches71 inches
Leg ReachN/A40 inches
Record6-26-1-1
Fighting StyleN/AMMA
Finishing Rate67%33%

UFC Mexico: Sofia Montenegro vs. Ernesta Kareckaite: Prediction

My prediction is a decision victory for Kareckaite over Montenegro because she’s the taller and longer fighter, which will be key in most of the striking exchanges during the fight. She can throw her punches and kicks at a comfortable distance while avoiding a firefight.

The only knack on Kareckaite is she tends to close the distance and push her opponents against the fence even though she has the physical advantages. Additionally, she has the experience of competing inside the octagon with two bouts under the Las Vegas-based promotion.

Sofia Montenegro’s Recent Fight Results

Montenegro’s route to the UFC was via Dana White’s Contender Series, where she fought Jeisla Chaves in September. She lost to Chaves in a close split decision, but was still awarded a UFC contract for her fantastic performance.

Ernesta Kareckaite’s Recent Fight Results

Kareckaite was a former HMMA titleholder before she faced Carli Judice in Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2023. After she eked out a close split decision win over Judice, she split her octagon bouts with a win over Nicolle Caliari and a loss to Dione Barbose.

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About the Author Read More @AnatolyPimentel

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with a B.A in Communication and is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.

Anatoly Pimentel is an NBA and MMA writer previously featured in ASEAN Sports, Asian Persuasion MMA, and Overtime Heroics MMA. He graduated from Adamson University with a B.A in Communication and is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM.