- The lightweight match between Charles Oliveira and Mateusz Gamrot will headline UFC Rio on Oct. 11.
- Oliveira is the +100 betting underdog.
- Gamrot is the -120 betting favorite.
The lightweight battle between former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira and ranked divisional contender Mateusz Gamrot will headline the UFC Rio card on Oct. 11, which will take place inside Farmasi Arena in Brazil.
Although he’s a short-notice replacement in this match, Gamrot is still the betting favorite heading into the fight with -120 UFC odds. A possible factor that made oddsmakers favor him was that he was coming off a victory in his previous fight.
Meanwhile, Oliveira, who will be fighting in front of his home fans, will be the +100 betting underdog, as he was fresh off a devastating knockout loss in his most recent match.
UFC Rio: Oliveira vs. Gamrot Odds
- Charles Oliveira: +100
- Mateusz Gamrot: -120
UFC Rio: Oliveira vs. Gamrot: Prediction
I predict that Oliveira will get a TKO/KO finish of Gamrot in this lightweight battle, because despite the solid wrestling pedigree of Gamrot, he’ll be glad to go down the mat and work his way into a potential submission finish, which is why I think this match will be on the feet most of the time.
The change of opponent for Oliveira in this bout is actually a good thing for him since he won’t be fighting a heavy puncher in Rafael Fiziev, but instead will face a fellow grappler in Gamrot. Just like I pointed out earlier, Oliveira doesn’t mind getting taken down because of his elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills.
If Gamrot hesitates to fight Oliveira on the mat due to the constant submission threats, it will likely be a striking showdown, and I think the Brazilian MMA superstar’s striking is better than Gamrot’s.
Aside from being a technical boxer, Oliveira can use his leg reach advantage with front kicks and teeps to keep Gamrot at bay. He also packs power in his strikes, and I predict he’ll find the TKO/KO triumph in the latter stages of the fight, likely in the fourth or fifth round.
Charles Oliveira’s Recent Fight Results
Oliveira is a UFC veteran with over a decade of experience fighting inside the octagon. He’s a former featherweight contender who moved to the lightweight division, where he became a perennial contender.
At one point during his run in the 155-pound weight class, he went on an eight-fight win streak, earning an outright shot at the UFC lightweight title in May 2021 against Michael Chandler at UFC 262.
“Do Bronx” knocked out Chandler in that title fight and won his next two bouts against Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. But in October 2022, Islam Makhachev halted his win streak with a first-round submission loss.
Since that defeat, Oliveira has split his next four fights, with wins over Beneil Dariush and Chandler, while his losses were courtesy of Arman Tsarukyan (split decision in April 2024 at UFC 300) and Ilia Topuria (first-round KO loss last June at UFC 317).
Mateusz Gamrot’s Recent Fight Results
Gamrot was an undefeated MMA champion outside of the UFC when he joined the Las Vegas-based promotion in October 2020. He made his debut against Guram Kutateladze but was handed a close split decision loss.
The Polish MMA star immediately bounced back and won eight of his next 10 fights. During this stretch, he defeated the likes of Jeremy Stephens, Tsarukyan, Jalin Turner, Rafael Fiziev, Rafael dos Anjos, and, most recently, Ludovit Klein.
UFC Rio: Oliveira vs. Gamrot: Tale of the Tape
| Charles Oliveira | Mateusz Gamrot | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 35 | 34 |
| Height | 5’10” | 5’10” |
| Reach | 74 inches | 70.5 inches |
| Leg Reach | 41 inches | 39 inches |
| Record | 35-11 | 25-3 |
| Fighting Style | Jiu-jitsu | Wrestling |
| Finishing Rate | 89% | 52% |
UFC Rio: Oliveira vs. Gamrot Fight Card
- Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot, lightweight fight
- Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson, bantamweight fight
- Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez, welterweight fight
- Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto, heavyweight fight
- Ricardo Ramos vs. Kaan Ofli, featherweight fight
- Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell, featherweight fight
- Jafel Filho vs. Clayton Carpenter, flyweight fight
- Vitor Petrino vs. Thomas Petersen, heavyweight fight
- Bia Mesquita vs. Irina Alekseeva, women’s bantamweight fight
- Lucas Rocha vs. Stewart Nicoll, flyweight fight
- Valter Walker vs. Mohammed Usman, heavyweight fight
- Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz, women’s strawweight fight
- Luan Lacerda vs. Saimon Oliveira, bantamweight fight
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
