The women’s strawweight rematch between Ketlen Souza and Ariane Carnelossi will open the action at UFC Vegas 118 on Saturday inside the Meta APEX in Las Vegas.
Fresh off a bounce-back win in her previous outing, Souza is going to be the betting favorite with -300 UFC odds, while Carnelossi, who was submitted in her last bout, will be the +240 betting underdog.
UFC Vegas 118: Ketlen Souza vs. Ariane Carnelossi Fight Odds
- Ketlen Souza: -300
- Ariane Carnelossi: +240
UFC Vegas 118: Ketlen Souza vs. Ariane Carnelossi: Tale of the Tape
| Ketlen Souza | Ariane Carnelossi | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 31 | 33 |
| Height | 5’3” | 5’2” |
| Reach | 63 inches | 61.5 inches |
| Leg Reach | 35 inches | 35 inches |
| Record | 16-6 | 15-4 |
| Fighting Style | Boxing | Muay Thai |
| Finishing Rate | 63% | 73% |
UFC Vegas 118: Ketlen Souza vs. Ariane Carnelossi: Prediction
My prediction is a decision win for Carnelossi over Souza, because she’s the more aggressive fighter and has the higher output in strikes. I see this as a replay of their first meeting six years ago when Carnelossi scored a late stoppage win over Souza.
Souza is still struggling with pressure and volume, which overwhelm her. Her response to this type of approach is to either throw haymakers in hopes of landing a solid counter or just shell up to defend herself.
The best route to victory for Souza is to take the fight to the ground and force a grappling match with Carnelossi. But Souza’s fighting base is on the feet, and I doubt if she initiates the action on the clinch and down on the mat.
Ketlen Souza’s Recent Fight Results
Souza was a former Invicta FC champion when the UFC signed her in 2023. Since her arrival in the promotion, she has split her six bouts to three wins (Marnic Mann, Yazmin Jauregui, and Bruna Brasil) and three losses (Karine Silva, Angela Hill, and Piera Rodriguez).
Ariane Carnelossi’s Recent Fight Results
Carnelossi was a highly touted prospect when the UFC signed her in 2019. Like Souza, she has recorded three wins and three losses under the Las Vegas-based promotion. Her victories were against Liang Na, Istela Nunes, and Rodriguez, while her losses were courtesy of Angela Hill, Loopy Godinez, and Talita Alencar.
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