The USA will begin its quest for a World Baseball Classic title with a Pool Play opener against Brazil at 8 p.m. ET on Friday in Daikin Park in Houston on FOX.
After losing the 2023 WBC championship game, the USA put together a loaded roster in hopes of winning this event for a second time. They begin as the tournament favorites, with their -110 odds implying a 52.38% probability.
Team USA is a -5000 moneyline favorite in Game 1, with Logan Webb getting the start.
Get my USA vs. Brazil prediction for March 6:
USA vs. Brazil WBC Prediction for March 6
- Pass at current odds
Based on the updated baseball odds, I don’t have a favorite USA vs. Brazil prediction for Friday’s WBC matchup.
Nobody wants to back a -5000 favorite, but the USA should have no problem taking care of business in this game. Team USA is a -700 favorite to win Pool B, while Brazil is the biggest long shot (+6600) in the group.
Looking back at the 2023 run, the USA could easily slip up in pool play at some point. They went 3-1, tying Mexico for the best record in their pool. The USA’s lone loss was an 11-5 defeat to Mexico, and they scored 21 runs in their three wins.
Given how talented this lineup is this time around, I could see myself being interested in the over at the right value. Team USA scored 29 total runs in the two exhibition games.
However, keep in mind that the World Baseball Classic has a mercy rule. A game will end if a team is leading by at least 15 runs after the fifth inning or by at least 10 runs after the seventh inning.
If the mercy rule is triggered, all total and run line wagers will be voided at BetMGM. Only moneyline wagers will be graded as final in a game ended by the mercy rule.
As a result, it might only be worth exploring the player prop markets. Bobby Witt Jr., who is my World Baseball Classic MVP prediction, is +220 to hit a home run in a USA win. That is sixth among all USA players, despite him hitting leadoff and likely getting the most plate appearances.
There will be other opportunities to back the USA in the WBC, but it might be best to stay away from their opener in what could be a lopsided affair.
USA vs. Brazil WBC Odds: Friday, March 6
- USA moneyline: -5000
- Brazil moneyline: +1600
- Total: 14.5
Who Will Start for USA vs. Brazil in the World Baseball Classic?
Right-hander Logan Webb will start for the USA against Brazil in their pool play matchup on Friday. Webb, 29, has spent the last seven years with the San Francisco Giants in MLB. He’s received Cy Young votes in four straight seasons.
Manager Mark DeRosa has yet to reveal the batting order, but this was the lineup in the first exhibition game against the Giants:
- SS Bobby Witt Jr.
- 1B Bryce Harper
- RF Aaron Judge
- DH Kyle Schwarber
- 3B Alex Bregman
- C Cal Raleigh
- LF Roman Anthony
- CF Byron Buxton
- 2B Brice Turang
Who Will Start for Brazil vs. USA in the World Baseball Classic?
Brazil has yet to announce a starting pitcher for Game 1 against the USA on March 6.
Right-hander Joseph Contreras, son of former right-hander Jose Contreras, is one of the more intriguing pitching prospects for Brazil. He’s currently a high school pitcher in Georgia and has committed to Vanderbilt. He’s ranked 35th on ESPN’s initial MLB draft rankings for 2026.
Would Brazil let Contreras face the USA in what will likely be his lone WBC appearance this year?
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