USA vs Canada: Women’s Olympic Hockey Gold Medal Game Odds & Prediction

The biggest rivalry in women’s international hockey takes the biggest stage on Thursday as Team USA and Team Canada meet in the gold medal game. 

Winter Olympics watchers have become accustomed to seeing these two countries face off for the gold medal. In fact, since the introduction of women’s ice hockey in 1998, Canada and the US have won every medal. 

But the 2026 Milan Cortina Olympics have an interesting twist to the rivalry: Team USA has already played Team Canada in the preliminary round, and they shut them out in a 5-0 win. 

Even though the gold medal game is a rematch, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t expect the usual hard-fought battle we see when these two teams meet.

Here’s a look at the current odds for the gold medal game as of Feb 18 and a prediction for what to expect. 

USA vs Canada Odds

Team USA is a -2.5 favorite to win the gold medal game against Canada. They’re also favored by -500 in the moneyline. 

The over/under is currently set at 5.5. 

USA vs Canada Prediction

While Canada has five gold medals to America’s three, the gap between these two historic rivals has never been smaller. 

Regardless of the outcome of this gold medal game, with Team USA having such success with a very young roster at these Olympics, they may be set up for a run that continues long past the 2026 Milan Cortina Games. 

It’s been an insanely dominant run to the gold medal game for the Americans, who have outscored their opponents 31-1 so far in the tournament. Their youth has fueled that dominance. 

23-year-old defenseman Caroline Harvey, who currently plays for the Wisconsin college hockey team, leads the women’s tournament in offense with nine points. Her teammate, Laila Edwards, 22, is also near the top of the leaderboard in scoring with seven points. 

Other standouts include Hannah Bilka, who plays for the PWHL’s Seattle Torrent, and leads the tournament in goals with four, and USA’s goaltender Aerin Fraenkel, a member of the PWHL’s Boston Fleet, who set a record for the most shutouts by a female goaltender in an Olympics. 

The Canadians, on the other hand, have had to fight their way into the final game of the tournament. They barely squeaked by Switzerland in the semifinal game, winning the game 2-1 thanks to a pair of goals from Canada’s all-time great Marie-Philip Poulin.  

Poulin, who plays with the PWHL’s Montreal Victoire, could be an X-factor in the gold medal rematch, given that she did not play in that first-round game against Team USA. But expecting the 34-year-old to carry them above a fast, young team in the rematch may be too much to ask even for the GOAT of women’s hockey. 

Canada hasn’t gotten enough out of Poulin’s teammates. Forward Sarah Fillier, a member of the New York Sirens, leads the team in scoring with three goals, but wasn’t heard from in the semifinal game, and forward Sarah Nurse has been way too quiet in this tournament. Nurse only has two assists. 

All of this evidence suggests another Team USA victory in the rematch, but the X-factor is the pressure of the moment. Could that be enough to fuel an experienced Canadian roster over a young American team? 

I expect a Team USA victory in this game, but I’d also predict an under for the 6.5 line in case we get a typically tight edition of this rivalry.