In what could be the best game of this year’s World Baseball Classic, the United States will face the Dominican Republic in the semifinals at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday at loanDepot Park in Miami on FS1.
The winner will advance to Tuesday’s championship game. These two teams have been the top favorites for the WBC title since the start of the event. Both are looking for their second WBC championship after the USA won it in 2017 and the Dominican Republic claimed it in 2013.
For Sunday’s matchup, the USA is a -140 favorite and will give the ball to Paul Skenes as the starter. The Dominican Republic will turn to Luis Severino.
Get my USA vs. Dominican Republic WBC prediction for Sunday’s semifinal matchup:
USA vs. Dominican Republic WBC Prediction: Sunday, March 15
- F5 Under 4.5 runs
Based on the updated baseball odds, I like the under for the first five innings for my USA vs. Dominican Republic prediction ahead of Sunday’s semifinal matchup in Miami.
Anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament, but this feels like the championship game. The winner of this matchup will be the betting favorite in Tuesday’s title contest.
Team USA is starting its best pitcher in what could be the tourney-deciding event. Skenes has a case as the best pitcher in the sport after winning the National League Cy Young trophy last season for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Skenes might be the only person capable of slowing down this Dominican Republic lineup that has scored 51 runs in the WBC, 11 more than anyone else. The Dominican Republic leads all teams in seven other offensive categories, including OPS.
However, facing Skenes is an entirely different challenge. Per Baseball Savant, Skenes averaged 97.4 miles per hour with his fastball in his first start against Mexico. That is more than four miles per hour than any pitcher the Dominican Republic has faced in this event.
As a result, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dominican Republic got off to a slower start. I don’t know if Team USA can keep this lineup down for nine innings, but the F5 total aligns more with Skenes’ projected innings, as he’s set to throw about 75-80 pitches.
At the same time, Team USA’s lineup has yet to reach its full potential. It has only scored three runs in the first five innings of the last two games. Severino might not be the level of pitcher of Skenes, but he should do well at keeping the ball on the ground.
I’m expecting a bit of a slower offensive start before both lineups make things interesting in the later innings.
I can’t wait for this game.
USA vs. Dominican Republic Odds for WBC Semifinals
- USA moneyline: -140
- Dominican Republic moneyline: +115
- Total: 8.5
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