After a 2-0 start in the World Baseball Classic, the United States team will face its toughest test yet against Mexico (2-0). First pitch is set for 8 p.m. ET on Monday at Daikin Park in Houston.
The USA is a -550 favorite to stay undefeated in pool play, but Mexico has won three of its four head-to-head meetings in this rivalry in WBC history. Will that matter in a pivotal matchup that could determine the Pool B winner?
Get my USA vs. Mexico WBC prediction for March 9:
USA vs. Mexico WBC Prediction for March 9
- Under 11.5 (Pick made Monday morning)
Based on the updated baseball odds, I like the under (11.5) as my favorite bet for the USA vs. Mexico WBC matchup on Monday.
Team USA’s loaded lineup has scored 24 runs through two games, so it is capable of clearing this total on its own. However, Mexico is a step up in competition after convincing wins over Brazil (15-5) and Great Britain (9-1).
Mexico has allowed a total of two runs against the same opponents, starting with an 8-2 win over Great Britain and then a 16-0 victory over Brazil.
But if I’m being completely honest, a big part of this handicap is that Paul Skenes will be starting for the USA.
There is an argument for Skenes being the best pitcher in baseball at just 23 years old. He’s coming off a Cy Young campaign in his second MLB season, spinning a 1.97 ERA with 216 strikeouts in 32 starts.
Skenes should set the tone, but he also has a rested bullpen behind him after the USA had Sunday off. Mason Miller, Griffin Jax, Garrett Cleavinger, Gabe Speier, and Garrett Whitlock could all be options in relief.
Speaking of which, Mexico’s bullpen is also rested following its mercy-rule victory. Andrés Muñoz, Robert Garcia, and Victor Vodnik should all step up to the challenge after starter Manny Barreda is pulled.
Due to the stakes of this matchup and the rested pitching staffs, I like the value of the under for tonight’s USA vs. Mexico WBC prediction.
USA vs. Mexico WBC Odds: Monday, March 9
- USA moneyline: -550
- Mexico moneyline: +400
- Total: 11
Who Will Start for Team USA Against Mexico in the World Baseball Classic?
Right-hander Paul Skenes will start for the USA against Mexico in their pool play matchup on Monday. Skenes, 23, has won the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards in his first two MLB campaigns.
Here is the lineup:
- SS Bobby Witt Jr.
- 1B Bryce Harper
- RF Aaron Judge
- DH Kyle Schwarber
- 3B Alex Bregman
- C Cal Raleigh
- LF Roman Anthony
- CF Byron Buxton
- 2B Brice Turang
Who Will Start for Mexico Against Team USA in the World Baseball Classic?
Mexico will send right-hander Manny Barreda to the mound in Monday’s World Baseball Classic matchup. The 37-year-old hurler most recently pitched in MLB in 2021, making three appearances for the Baltimore Orioles.
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