Venezuela vs. USA Prediction: WBC Championship Game Preview

The 2026 World Baseball Classic will come to a close with Tuesday’s championship game between the USA and Venezuela at 8 p.m. ET at loanDepot Park in Miami on FOX.

Team USA is seeking its second WBC title in the event’s history, having won its first in 2017. Venezuela would be a first-time champion, as it has never made it this far in the World Baseball Classic.

Based on the updated baseball odds, the USA enters as a solid favorite with New York Mets right-hander Nolan McLean getting the start. Venezuela will counter with Arizona Diamondbacks left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez.

Get my Venezuela vs. USA WBC prediction for Tuesday’s championship game:

Venezuela vs. USA WBC Prediction: Tuesday, March 17

• Venezuela moneyline (+220)
• Maikel Garcia WBC MVP (+2000)
  • (Both picks were made Tuesday morning)

I’m riding with the underdog for my Venezuela vs. USA prediction in tonight’s championship game.

Team USA deserves to be the favorites, but I think the odds are giving them a bit too much respect in a winner-take-all title match.

One could easily argue that these two teams have identical resumes in this year’s WBC. They both lost their final pool game and are 5-1 overall. They both have similar offensive statistics:

• Runs: USA 42, Venezuela 38
• Hits: USA 56, Venezuela 55
• Home runs: USA 9, Venezuela 9
• RBIs: USA 38, Venezuela 36
• Stolen bases: Venezuela 8, USA 6

In terms of pitching, both teams have a 3.00 ERA. The USA has recorded 19 more strikeouts and allowed nine fewer walks. That said, if the USA has a pitching advantage at all, I think it gets wiped away in this matchup.

McLean, a 24-year-old rookie hurler, will get the nod. He started the last game of pool play, too, allowing three earned runs in as many innings to Italy. Rodriguez also gave up three runs in 2 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Dominican Republic.

With both starters unlikely to have a long leash, this game could come down to which team has the better bullpen.

In this tournament, Venezuela has had the superior group of relievers. Venezuela’s bullpen has pitched 14 shutout innings over the last two games, striking out 16 batters over that span.

As a result, it would be Venezuela moneyline or pass for me in this game. However, I think Maikel Garcia’s MVP odds (+2000) might be the better play.

Garcia leads Venezuela with 10 hits and three stolen bases. He’s hitting .435 with one home run, two doubles, and six RBIs.

Garcia has played a key part in back-to-back comeback wins in the knockout stage, delivering a two-run homer in the fifth inning of Venezuela’s quarterfinal win against Japan before following that up with a go-ahead RBI single in last night’s semifinal victory.

I backed Bobby Witt Jr. in the initial WBC MVP odds at 22/1, so it seems only fitting that I take the other star player from the left side of the Kansas City Royals’ infield before tonight’s final.

Venezuela vs. USA Odds for WBC Final

• Venezuela moneyline: +200
• USA moneyline: -250
• Total: 9