Based on NFL odds from the BetMGM online sportsbook, this is a NFL playoff prediction for the underdog most likely to win outright.
As it stands, there are three underdogs listed at +200 or higher to capture an outright win in the divisional round: the Texans, Commanders and Rams.
Of those three teams, my belief is that the Texans (+375) are the most likely to capture an outright victory.
From a matchup standpoint, Houston's defense could cause problems for the Chiefs offense. Entering the divisional round, the Texans rank third in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
Offensively, the Texans prefer to place the ball in C.J. Stroud's hands and pass the ball a lot. Currently, Houston ranks 10th in passing attempts per game and 12th in pass play percentage.
That presents them with a favorable matchup against the Chiefs defense, which ranks 17th in pass defense DVOA.
Additionally, Kansas City enters Saturday's game a major negative regression candidate. This season, the Chiefs finished 10-0 in games decided by seven or fewer points. Normally, those games are coin-flip decisions.
For additional analysis and a breakdown of the pick, click the video above for an NFL playoff prediction.
