What Is Closing Line Value and Why Does It Matter in Sports Betting?

One of the bedrocks of advanced sports betting is the concept of earning closing line value.

Closing line value – or CLV, as it’s often called – is not necessary for winning your bets, as I’ll demonstrate below.

That said, bettors who regularly achieve CLV are likely following a strong handicapping process that is likely to end with winning bets.

Keep reading for a thorough explanation and examination of closing line value.

What Is Closing Line Value in Sports Betting?

Closing line value (CLV) is the difference between the betting odds a bettor receives and the final odds available before the event begins.

Because betting markets for a specific event often shift based on information and public discussion, sports bettors can end up with a “better” number than the market ultimately closes at. This better number is valuable, relative to where the market ended up moving.

Positive Closing Line Value Example

Imagine an NFL game between the Eagles and Giants that’s going to be played in a typical Sunday afternoon time slot. Let’s say the Eagles opened as a 4-point favorite at the beginning of the week.

Now, imagine that lots of people are betting the Giants all week. The line moves from Eagles -4 to Eagles -3.5. At that point, in the middle of the week, you bet Giants +3.5.

By Friday, this imaginary point spread has moved to Eagles -3. And by kickoff, it’s moved to Eagles -2.5.

Because you bet Giants +3.5, you would have closing line value against, relative to the closing price of Giants +2.5. You’re in a better position than someone who bet the game right before kickoff.

This doesn’t guarantee your bet will win, but you’d rather have an underdog at +3.5 than +2.5. That’s positive closing line value.

Negative Closing Line Value Example

Imagine a Tuesday NBA game where the Knicks are playing the Pacers. The first point spread you see is Pacers +4.5, and so you bet that.

But between the Monday market opening and the Tuesday tipoff, the point spread moves from Knicks -4.5 to Knicks -7. Your bet remains static at Pacers +4.5, but the market has gone to Pacers +7.

This doesn’t mean your bet is automatically going to lose. But the market did move against your position, and you’re left with a ticket that’s less valuable than someone who’s betting Pacers +7 right before tip.

That’s negative closing line value.

How Do You Calculate Closing Line Value?

Closing line value can easily be calculated by comparing the odds of your bet against the odds of the closing market.

The language you use to describe this CLV may change, depending on the kind of bet you have.

How to Calculate CLV for Point Spreads and Totals

For spreads and totals, calculating CLV is very simple. If you bet a team at -5.5, and the market closes at -7, you have 1.5 points of CLV.

For a total, if you bet a college football over at 55.5, and the market closes at 58.5, you have three points of CLV.

How to Calculate CLV Using Betting Odds

CLV can still be obtained in moneyline markets, as you might see with a baseball side or a futures bet. But the language bettors might use to describe this is a little different.

If you bet the Buffalo Sabres to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs at a moneyline cost of -145, and the Sabres close at -175, most experienced bettors would describe that as 30 cents of CLV.

Similarly, if you bet on Texas football to win the national championship at +600 and they move to +525 after a big SEC win, you would have received 75 cents of CLV.

Larger futures shifts become harder to briefly describe. If you bet a player to win the Heisman at 150-to-1, and he’s now at 17-to-1, many players will just share the before-and-after prices.

Why Does Closing Line Value Matter?

Closing line value doesn’t win you anything. There are no prizes for achieving CLV. It’s simply a description of your betting position, relative to the closing market position.

That said, bettors who are regularly achieving CLV with their bets are clearly showing they have a winning long-term process. Seasoned bettors who are in a losing skid may point to their consistent CLV as an indicator that they’ve been unlucky, rather than bad.

CLV Can Help Evaluate the Quality of Your Bets

Beyond a bet’s graded outcome, CLV can reveal the quality of a bet – or at least, what the market believes about the quality of a bet.

Closing Lines Incorporate More Market Information

As markets learn additional information about a team, a player, a matchup, or another secondary aspect of a sports event, that information may begin to shape the odds for an event.

CLV vs. Winning Percentage

Closing line value is correlated to winning bets, assuming the market in which those bets are made is efficient. But there is not necessarily a strict causality between CLV and winning, and inexperienced bettors would be wise to remember that.

Is Closing Line Value the Same as Expected Value?

No. Expected value, which is typically shorthanded as EV, estimates the value of a given bet based on a bettor’s calculation of underlying probability.

Imagine an advanced handicapper who models team behavior and originates his own numbers for every baseball game. If he expects the Cardinals to have a 62% chance to win a game, but he can bet the Cardinals at -110, that would be a bet with positive expected value.

CLV is different from this because it strictly measures your bet and price against the closing market’s price. There are no underlying sports fundamentals to be considered in that comparison.

Does Positive CLV Mean You Will Win Money?

Absolutely not. One of the fundamental rules of sports betting is that there are no guarantees. Every decision carries inherent risk.

Positive CLV is a good sign that your bet is valuable, relative to the market. But value can be ephemeral in sports betting, and many bettors over-prioritize it when placing bets.

Closing line value is an indicator worth paying some attention to. But ultimately, you should be careful not to let CLV consume your entire outlook on betting.