- The White Sox are -105 favorites vs the Reds
- White Sox starting pitcher: Michael Lynn
- Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Chicago White Sox (-105) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-115) on Friday, May 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The White Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The White Sox vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the White Sox are 10-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 18-13 ATS.
White Sox vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| White Sox | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 +100 | -105 |
| Reds | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -120 | -115 |
White Sox vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 63.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the White Sox and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best White Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elvis Andrus has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 away games (+12.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Luis Robert has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.35 Units / 50% ROI)
- Luis Robert has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Luis Robert has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.80 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 23 games (+14.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+11.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+9.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+8.60 Units / 108% ROI)
- Jason Vosler has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.30 Units / 25% ROI)
Reds vs White Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Reds vs White Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Reds vs White Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Gavin Sheets | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Reds vs White Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +100 |
| Lance Lynn | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -115 |
White Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+5.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.85 Units / 11% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+7.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+5.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.60 Units / 28% ROI)
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 14-18 against the Run Line (-6.8 Units / -16.5% ROI).
- 10-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.95 Units / -33.85% ROI
- 17-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.05 Units / 11.55% ROI
- 12-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -19.07% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 18-13 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 11.49% ROI).
- 13-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -12.13% ROI
- 16-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.3 Units / -0.89% ROI
- 15-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -7.98% ROI
White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
9 of Lance Lynn’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Lance Lynn has a first-pitch strike rate of 74% (109/148) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (16/44) against Lance Lynn on non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Lance Lynn has allowed a slugging percentage of .606 (20 Total Bases / 33 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .301 — second Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene has thrown 585 fastballs at 100+ MPH since last season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has thrown 103 fastballs at 100+ MPH this season — 2nd most among pitchers in MLB — 97th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has struck out 36% (120/337) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a BABIP of .475 against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .303 — first Percentile.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The White Sox are just 6-5 (.545) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The White Sox are just 2-5 (.286) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The White Sox are just 6-4 (.600) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The White Sox are 15-8 (.652) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Reds are just 61-6 (.910) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Reds are just 18-28 (.391) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .652.
The Reds are just 20-22 (.476) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Reds are 5-12 (.294) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters have drawn 340 walks in 5,730 PA’s (6%) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
White Sox hitters have 116 extra-base hits out of 369 total hits (just 31%) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .455 (320 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .657.
White Sox hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 10% on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 24% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Reds hitters have 17 extra-base hits out of 66 total hits (just 26%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Reds are batting just .308 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
White Sox pitchers have walked 143 of 1,291 batters (11%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The White Sox have allowed 2.28 runs per game (73/32) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.35.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against White Sox pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
White Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.65 (283.1 IP) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.37.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .349 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .313 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .377 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Reds pitchers have walked 155 of 1,699 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. White Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Fernando Cruz (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D15
- William Myers (Reds): Undisclosed, D10
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
- Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Elbow, D15
- Jacob Burger (White Sox): Oblique, D10
- Liam Hendriks (White Sox): Illness, D15
- Matthew Foster (White Sox): Forearm, D60
- Yoán Moncada (White Sox): Back, D10
- Roman González (White Sox): Shoulder, D10
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