6 Picks For the First Round of Wimbledon 2026

The lawn is officially in use in London.

The 2026 edition of Wimbledon began on Monday, with first-round singles matches expected to continue through Tuesday or Wednesday, depending on the weather.

Naturally, BetMGM has Wimbledon tennis odds for every single match on offer, including live tennis odds.

I spent a good portion of my weekend combing through this year’s draw and accompanying odds, looking for interesting betting opportunities. Here are a few predictions for what we might see in this year’s first round.

Brandon Nakashima vs. Jack Pinnington Jones Prediction

If Taylor Fritz didn’t exist, Nakashima would probably get the nod as the best, most consistent American grass player on the ATP Tour over the last five years.

In his 2026 first-round match against British wild card Jack Pinnington Jones, he should have minimal trouble earning fast winners and keeping the crowd at bay.

Prediction: Brandon Nakashima -6.5 Games (+110)

Kamil Majchrzak vs. Alejandro Tabilo Prediction

Majchrzak enters Wimbledon with an all-time high ranking, ready to make some noise. He has a decent early draw, with clay specialist Alejandro Tabilo up first.

Tabilo is technically seeded in the Wimbledon draw, but he hasn’t won a match since Roland Garros. He’s 0-2 this grass season and hasn’t won a singles tour match on the turf since 2024.

Majchrzak, by contrast, won the singles draw at Hertogenbosch this month. It was maybe the most impressive non-Slam title anyone has won in months, as he defeated Felix Auger Aliassime, Daniil Medvedev, and Alex de Minaur on consecutive days to claim the title.

I think Majchrzak will challenge in his Wimbledon quarter, so laying some advantage in this potentially lopsided match against Tabilo makes plenty of sense to me.

Prediction: Kamil Majchrzak -3.5 Games (-130); Majchrzak -1.5 Sets (-120)

Robin Montgomery vs. Jasmine Paolini Prediction

Paolini is a seeded player who made the Wimbledon finals in 2024, so it was curious to see her as a dog here against an American player whom I could barely remember on seeing her name in the draw.

But the market always knows. Robin Montgomery – WTA rank 195, mind you – enters Tuesday’s match against Paolini on a 10-match winning streak. That includes the championship match at Hertogenbosch, where she “defeated” Barbora Krejcikova via walkover.

But take Montgomery lightly at your own peril. She has wins this month against Daria Kasatkina, Greetje Minnen, and Ajla Tomljanovic, and she had to play her way into the Wimbledon main draw via qualifying matches. She’s won 18 of the 21 grass sets she’s played this month. She is the rightful favorite in this match.

Prediction: Robin Montgomery -165

Arthur Fils vs. Raphael Collignon Prediction

Arthur Fils was one of the five hottest players on the men’s tour during the clay season, but streaks can end quickly in professional tennis. The 22-year-old French player retired four games into his first match in Rome and hasn’t played since.

Is Fils healthy, or is he just pushing to play in the last Slam event until the end of the summer? Complicating matters further is the reality that Fils hasn’t played a match on grass in two years.

That’s a lot of headwind even for a good player to overcome, which probably explains why the No. 20-seeded Fils is such a short favorite against a Belgian clay specialist like Collignon.

Collignon, for his part, played through the qualifiers bracket at Halle, where he made it to the main draw and took Alexander Zverev to two tiebreaker sets in the second round. This has all the makings of an entirely foreseeable first-round upset.

Prediction: Raphael Collignon +115

Ben Shelton vs. Otto Virtanen Prediction

Ben Shelton is the best American player on the ATP Tour right now, and he’s a pretty good grass competitor. So to see him priced at only -350 in a first-round match set off immediate alarm bells in my head.

Shelton’s opponent, Otto Virtanen, is a semi-unknown Finnish 25-year-old who enters the Wimbledon main draw with a very nice 2026 grass resume. He reached the championship match at Challenger draws in both Birmingham and Nottingham, then played his way onto the court with Shelton via the qualifying draw. In total, he’s won 11 grass matches this month.

Obviously, the level of competition in these Challenger draws isn’t quite what Shelton probably sees on a weekly basis. Nevertheless, Virtanen has clearly gone all-in on Wimbledon prep and enters Tuesday’s match as one of the most in-form grass players in the entire ATP main draw.

The relatively short odds confirm that the market believes he does have the mojo to spring a big first-round upset. I think it’s worth having a small piece of the +260.

Prediction: Otto Virtanen +260

Wimbledon Best Bets: 2026 First Round

• Brandon Nakashima -6.5 Games (+110)
• Kamil Majchrzak -1.5 Set Spread (-120)
• Majchrzak -3.5 Game Spread (-130)
• Robin Montgomery -165
• Raphael Collignon +115
• Otto Virtanen +260