Six of the top 11 players are not in contention on the men’s side of the draw, busting things wide open for what should be a thrilling third-round Friday at Wimbledon.
Wimbledon odds have shifted seismically after four of the highest-ranked men have bowed out for one reason or another.
Matteo Berrettini withdrew after receiving a positive COVID-19 test, while Felix Auger-Aliassime, Hubert Hurkacz and Casper Ruud were all defeated in the first or second round.
The two players who needed the least help – Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic – along with Carlos Alcaraz, have benefitted from a jarring, unconventional first few days at the All England Club.
Wimbledon betting odds have Nadal as the +400 second favorite and Djokovic as the clear -182 frontrunner. Alcaraz opened the tournament at +3300 and has since moved to +1100.
Here are a couple of Round 3 matches on Friday deserving of your tennis betting attention.
Wimbledon Odds: Cameron Norrie (-385) vs Steve Johnson (+270)
Let’s start with a favorite who probably won’t disappoint, Great Britain’s Cameron Norrie.
The world No. 12 Norrie is making his fifth appearance at Wimbledon and would equal his best result with a win over 93rd-ranked American Steve Jonhson.
The American and Brit have never played each other on tour, increasing the pre-match hype. Johnson, who is making his ninth Wimbledon appearance, is no stranger to the lawns of the All England Club. The 32-year-old qualified for his best Wimbledon performance in the fourth round in 2016.
Next stop: Third round
🇬🇧 @cam_norrie wins a five-set thriller against Jaume Munar, 6-4, 3-6, 5-7, 6-0, 6-2#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/I1awRltbyi
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) June 29, 2022
Norrie has won two ATP titles in 2022, one on hard court (Delray Beach) and one on clay (Lyon). In addition, he has been playing some solid tennis, making it to the third round of the French Open and quarterfinals at Eastbourne.
Johnson enters Friday’s match the fresher of the two players after winning his first two in a total of five sets, the same number of sets it took Norrie to outlast Spain’s Jaume Munar in the second round.
Grigor Dimitrov was forced to withdraw against Johnson in the first round after suffering an injury, while Brit Ryan Peniston was no match for the American in the second round.
Johnson is yet to break a sweat in two rounds at Wimbledon, which Norrie will put a stop to on Friday. The Brit will have too much for Johnson in this one. Expect the favorite to advance in three, possibly four sets.
Pick: Norrie (-385), Four Set Victory (+260)
Wimbledon Odds: Frances Tiafoe (-111) vs Alexander Bublik (-115)
The pick’em match showcasing Frances Tiafoe and Alexander Bublik pits two players who haven’t yet lost a set against one another. With a win, both players would equal their best Wimbledon result.
Tiafoe and Bublik made it to the third round in 2021, while the former had an additional third-round appearance in 2018.
Bublik is ranked 38th and Tiafoe comes in at 28th in world rankings. They’ve faced each other twice on tour, with either player taking one encounter. Bublik got the better of Tiafoe most recently, winning in three sets on grass at Eastbourne in the leadup to Wimbledon.
Both players have one title, but Bublik has enjoyed the more recent success. The 25-year-old from Kazakhstan won his first title earlier this year at Montpellier on hard court. Bublik has also spent more time on the lawns, winning six of nine grass-court contests in 2022.
Tiafoe has played half as much on grass this year, winning two of four contests on tennis’ fastest surface.
Based on current form, Bublik has the slight edge and should win a doozy. Expect this one to go the distance and Bublik to advance to the third round of Wimbledon for the second time.
Pick: Bublik (-115), Five Set Victory (+450)
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