Wimbledon Betting: Men’s Quarterfinal Predictions

Wednesday’s quarterfinal matches on the men’s side of the draw showcase two ginormous favorites, one of whom is looking for his first Grand Slam and the other in search of No. 22. 

Wimbledon betting odds have Rafael Nadal as the +375 favorite to win his third Wimbledon title. His odds have shortened from +1000 pre-tournament. Meanwhile, Nick Kyrgios started the tournament at +3300. His Wimbledon odds have shortened to +700. 

Wimbledon Odds: Cristian Garin (+333) vs. Nick Kyrgios (-455)

Wimbledon odds have Cristian Garin as a titanic +333 underdog against Australia’s Nick Kyrgios. Based on skill set, raw talent, and grass-court aptitude, the wildly contrasting Wimbledon betting odds are spot-on. 

However, Kyrgios is more susceptible to a meltdown than any other player on tour. He has calmed down and shown novel maturity during his current Wimbledon run, but the Kyrgios of Wimbledon’s past reared its ugly head against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the third round. 

His petulance in the third-round contest strangely and affrontingly favored Kyrgios, whose antics clearly unnerved, even derailed, Tsitsipas. 

Many thought Kyrgios, ranked 40th in the world, would steamroll Brandon Nakashima in their fourth-round match. Instead, the Australian showed discomfort in his serving shoulder throughout the first two sets but didn’t favor it at all after that. 

If his shoulder is injured, the question of severity comes into play. Will compounding discomfort be enough to hinder the Aussie’s greatest weapon, his torpedo-like serve? 

Kyrgios relies on his serve as much as any player on tour. Therefore, any ailment that affects his ability to launch missiles continuously could have pronounced implications on the outcome of the quarterfinal. 

Garin’s fifth Wimbledon has proven more fruitful than he could have imagined. The 43rd-ranked Chilean took full advantage of a discernibly weakened draw and deserves plaudits for doing so.  

With his fourth round, five-set triumph over Alex de Minaur, Garin became the first to overcome a two-set deficit at this year’s tournament. Garin showed signs of his grass-court ability at last year’s Wimbledon, where he obtained a personal best by advancing to the fourth round. 

The 26-year-old covers the court well and is comfortable at the net. However, he has never qualified for the semifinal of a Grand Slam and, unless Kyrgios self-destructs, probably won’t do so at Wimbledon, at least this year anyway. 

The first man to recover from two sets down at this year's Championships

Take a bow, Cristian Garin 👏#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/EdEi8dDBz3

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 4, 2022

Based on analytics, experience, and skill set, Kyrgios is the logical pick to advance to his first Wimbledon semifinal.

This tournament represents the mercurial Aussie’s best chance of winning a Grand Slam, which, if he finds a way to pull off the feat, would concurrently prove to the tennis world he has the desire, commitment, and mental fortitude to win on the grandest stage. 

While it’s highly unlikely he’ll win the tournament, beating Garin, even with his sordid history of instantaneous implosion, is a hurdle he should clear.  

If his shoulder is fine, which I’m confident it is, Kyrgios will have too much power and technique for the Chilean to cope with. 

Pick: Kyrgios (-455), Four Set Victory (+260)

Wimbledon Odds: Taylor Fritz (+225) vs. Rafael Nadal (-286)

Thanks to winning the Eastbourne International and getting the better of Rafael Nadal in their last head-to-head matchup, Taylor Fritz’s chances of upending the imperious Spaniard have improved ever so slightly. 

Fritz defeated Nadal in straight sets at the Indian Wells final in March. While an impressive result, the Indian Wells’ final is an altogether different setting than a best-of-five set quarterfinal at the world’s most revered and hallowed tennis grounds. 

Taylor Fritz is in the form of his life 👏

The American advances to his first Grand Slam quarter-final with a straight sets win against Jason Kubler#Wimbledon | @Taylor_Fritz97 pic.twitter.com/8keOczkO5E

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 4, 2022

Fritz, 24, has the offensive weapons, endurance, agility, confidence and youthful exuberance to trouble the Spaniard on his least favorite surface. 

The 14th-ranked American hasn’t dropped a set in four matches, placing an emphatic exclamation mark on his flawless performance level at The Championships thus far. 

While it’s unfair to diminish that impeccable record, Fritz is yet to face a seeded competitor, let alone the world’s most decorated player. 

Rafa rolls into the quarter-finals 💪

The Spaniard secures a straight sets victory over Botic van de Zandschulp 6-4, 6-2, 7-6(6)#Wimbledon | #CentreCourt100 | @RafaelNadal pic.twitter.com/Sq0SovkdoB

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 4, 2022

Nadal is looking to win the French Open and Wimbledon double for the first time since 2010. He also achieved the rare feat in 2008. He is also seeking his 23rd Grand Slam title, which would put him three ahead of Novak Djokovic. 

The Spanish legend hasn’t appeared hampered by his niggling foot injury in the first four rounds, a foreboding consideration for Fritz. 

Currently ranked 4th in the world, Nadal is also searching for his first career calendar Grand Slam. He won the Australian Open at the start of 2022, before lifting his 14th French Open trophy last month.  

All of those factors, combined with Nadal’s 11-year absence from a Wimbledon final create a perfect storm for the commanding Spaniard. 

Fritz should win a set but won’t be able to stop Nadal’s quest for a calendar-year Grand Slam. 

Pick: Rafael Nadal (-286), In Four Sets (+260)