The qualifiers are over, and a fortnight of Wimbledon odds has arrived. The Championships at Wimbledon are upon us.
I don’t want to waste any time here – if you’re here reading this post on a Sunday night or Monday morning, you’re obviously a member of the online sports betting community that’s here for actionable Wimbledon betting intel. That’s what I want to give you.
There are a lot of matches over the next 24 hours, and many inexperienced tennis bettors will opt to bet large amounts of money on big-name, highly-ranked players who are massive favorites.
This is one of the great mistakes in tennis. Big favorites lose all the time, and it only takes one untimely loss on a big tennis odds favorite to set you back a lot of money.
So instead of laying preposterous juice in the first round of the men’s draw at Wimbledon, here are four mild, affordable sides that you can bet for Monday’s opening action in London.
Wimbledon Odds: Thiago Monteiro -150 vs. Jaume Munar
Munar is the higher-ranked, better-known player on tour, but he’ll play the mild underdog in the Wimbledon opener here to the older Monteiro.
Monteiro is one of the many Brazilian pros who is considered something of a clay specialist – he’s averaging 27 clay wins per year over the last five seasons – but he does have a decent grass game.
Compare that to Munar, who has won exactly one match on grass throughout his entire career. Oh, and that was back in 2014, in the Wimbledon junior draw.
Just think about the implications of this price for just one second. The sportsbook doesn’t respect Munar’s grass game, and neither should you.
Bet: Thiago Monteiro -150
Wimbledon Odds: Kamil Majchrzak (-130) vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
Here’s another case of a lower-ranked player laying small juice to a higher-ranked player. These are the sorts of spots I love to target in almost any tour spot, and that goes double for a short, funky season like grass, where the market hasn’t had much time to catch up to player court preferences.
In the case of Majchrzak, he doesn’t necessarily have a burst of wins on the warm-up circuit that can inspire quick confidence before Wimbledon.
However, take a look at the players he lost competitive matches to. He dropped a two-setter to Sam Querry (6-7, 2-6) in a Queen’s Club Qualifier. Before that, there was a tight loss to top-25 Karen Khachanov, 7-5, 5-7, 6-7.
Contrast that against Kokkinakis, who dropped his only grass warm-up at a Challenger tournament to a player ranked outside the top 250. He hasn’t won a match on grass since 2018.
I actually think this price is far too light, so I’m recommending bettors who want to get aggressive target the set spread.
Bet: Kamil Majchrzak -130; Majchrzak Set Spread -1.5 (+140)
Wimbledon Odds: Christian Harrison (-115) vs. Jay Clarke
One of my cardinal rules of tennis betting is to jump on qualifiers that the sportsbook likes.
Here, we have Christian Harrison – with an ATP ranking of 248 – as a virtual pick ‘em against British wild-card Jay Clarke.
Clarke will have a home crowd cheering him on, but that’s about it. He mainly plays at the Challenger level, with rare appearances at ATP Tour events. He hasn’t won a match on the main tour since 2019 and is 2-8 in his last 10 grass matches at any level.
Harrison, on the other hand, came through the qualifying match and is playing with great form.
This is a classic trap spot for inexperienced tennis bettors, who will see that Clarke is ranked nearly 100 spots higher. Don’t fall for the numbers game – Harrison is priced like he is for a clear reason.
Bet: Christian Harrison -115
Wimbledon Odds: Sebastian Baez (-135) vs. Taro Daniel
Sebastian Baez is a classic clay specialist who crashes once the tour moves away from the red dirt. He’s propelled himself to a nice, fat top-40 ATP rating, capped by winning the draw at ATP Estoril at the beginning of May.
However, Baez has a career match record of 1-4 on grass, which explains why he is such a modest favorite against Taro Daniel (Rk 123).
Like Majchrzak, Daniel has shown some positive signals by playing up to his competition in the weeks ahead of Wimbledon. He split a pair of three-set matches with Denis Kudla at Queen’s Court (lost, 4-6, 6-1, 0-6) and Mallorca (won, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3).
I believe that Daniel will extend Baez’s career grass problems and advance to the second round at Wimbledon this year.
Bet: Taro Daniel +105; Taro Daniel Alt Spread -1.5 (+175)