Wimbledon Betting: Nick Kyrgios vs. Rafael Nadal Predictions

The men’s semifinal showcasing Nick Kyrgios and Rafael Nadal provides the world No. 40 Australian with his best chance of advancing to a Grand Slam final. 

According to Wimbledon betting odds, Kyrgios has leapfrogged to +450 second-favorite status. Nadal is clearly struggling with an abdominal injury and has been demoted to +750 third favorite. 

Wimbledon odds had Nadal at +1000 before the start of the tournament. So even though Nadal miraculously found a way past Taylor Fritz in the unforgettable five-set quarterfinal, his shifting betting line movement tells an ominous tale. 

[UPDATE: July 7, 2:30 p.m. ET]: Nadal has officially withdrawn from the tournament due to his injury.

Nadal, prior to his quarterfinal, was pegged as the +375 second favorite to lift his third Wimbledon title. However, Nadal was clearly ailing against Fritz, heavily favoring his abdomen. At one point during the second set, it looked like he wouldn’t be able to continue. 

Unfortunately, the outcome of this semifinal will probably come down to Nadal’s ability to cope with yet another debilitating injury. 

Wimbledon Odds: Nick Kyrgios (-154) vs. Rafael Nadal (+125)

Kyrgios has been waiting a long time for a chance to make a Wimbledon final. The enigmatic Australian, before Wimbledon 2022, hadn’t qualified for a Grand Slam quarterfinal for seven haunting years. 

In 2014, he made it to the quarterfinals during his Wimbledon debut, beating Nadal along the way. He followed that surprising Wimbledon run by making it to the same stage of the 2015 Australian Open. 

Kyrgios, hampered by indiscipline and a propensity for self-destructive behavior, hasn’t threatened at a Grand Slam since. 

A first Grand Slam semi-final ​✅​@NickKyrgios defeats Cristian Garin 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(5)#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/irn1vbb7DP

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 6, 2022

Thanks to the uncertainty surrounding Nadal’s health, he is the favorite to qualify for his first Wimbledon final. 

Kyrgios trounced Cristian Garin 6-4, 6-3, 7-6 in the quarterfinal and has shown signs of improved maturity and composure throughout The Championships. 

He has deployed his domineering serve to devastating effect, hitting 120 aces and a 70% first-serve success rate. Both are tournament bests. The mercurial Aussie is also comfortable at the net and has a formidably accurate and powerful backhand. 

Nadal, who prevailed improbably over Fritz, took advantage of the American’s inability to approach the net confidently. 

25 shots of pure tennis theatre 🎭@RafaelNadal 🤝 @Taylor_Fritz97#Wimbledon | #CentreCourt100 pic.twitter.com/KwZg3hpOye

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 6, 2022

Discernibly hindered by an abdominal injury, Nadal’s serve took the biggest hit. His average first-serve speed decreased by almost 10 mph. A number of his first serves hovered around the 90 mph mark, a comparatively tortoise-like pace. 

Nadal will find himself in severe peril if he cannot find a way to muster faster first serves consistently. Fritz broke Nadal’s serve eight times during the quarterfinal, highlighting the most arresting effect of his injury.  

"For a lot of moments I was thinking maybe I will not be able to finish the match"

The mentality of a champion who never quits#Wimbledon | #CentreCourt100 | @RafaelNadal pic.twitter.com/PEKGN1R9fU

— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 6, 2022

Nadal has won six of nine meetings against Kyrgios and, under normal circumstances would be expected to continue his dominance over the 27-year-old. These circumstances, though, are far from normal. 

The imperious Spaniard is attempting to win his first Wimbledon-French Open double since achieving the feat in 2010. 

If his abdomen is as debilitating as it was during the quarterfinal, Kyrgios should make the most of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to oust the world’s most winningest player. 

Pick: Kyrgios (-154), Four Set Victory (+320)