Two first-time Grand Slam semi-finalists, Ons Jabeur and Tatjana Maria will square off Thursday with a place in Saturday’s Wimbledon final on the line.
Jabeur, the world No. 2, is the +130 favorite to win her first major trophy, while Maria’s Wimbledon betting odds have her as a +1400 underdog.
When you consider her motivational yet improbable journey, you can see why Maria is still sitting as a +1400 Wimbledon odds long shot.
She is the 103rd-ranked woman on tour and, before Wimbledon, had never advanced to the fourth round of a major in her 21-year career. Those 21 years were not without interruption, as Maria has two children, one of whom was born 15 months ago.
It makes her 35th Grand Slam appearance all the more special. But will her fairytale run end against a player reaching peak form at precisely the right time?
Wimbledon Odds: Ons Jabeur (-769) vs. Tatjana Maria (+500)
Like Maria, Jabeur is also playing in her first major semifinal. However, unlike her German opponent, Jabeur has dominated almost every court she has touched for most of the calendar year.
While she hasn’t dominated to the extent of world No. 1 Iga Swiatek, Jabeur appeared in the final in three of four and four of her previous six tournaments. In addition, she won the Mutua Madrid Open and the bett1 Open in Berlin.
The moment Ons Jabeur reached her first Grand Slam semi-final#Wimbledon | #CentreCourt100 pic.twitter.com/c7z6F9UUYw
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 5, 2022
Jabeur’s superiority extends onto grass, where she is 10-0 in the current season and 20-2 dating back to last year.
While the Tunisian’s grass-court preeminence would gravely concern an ordinary semifinal opponent, it’s unlikely Maria will allow anything to knock her from the cloud-nine-like pedestal she currently inhabits.
The 34-year-old has nothing to lose, which has been the case since opening day at the All England Club.
While Jabeur, 27, is riding a trajectory of ascendancy, Maria is well and truly in last-chance saloon territory. But, then again, she probably never expected Wimbledon 2022, after 34 Grand Slam attempts, to provide her first opportunity at a major final.
"What an astonishing point!"
A rally for the ages between Tatjana Maria and Jule Niemeier 🥵#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/WrkFKSdaK4
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 5, 2022
The prospect of advancing to a first major final in the twilight of her career can go one of two ways. It can galvanize and have an awe-inspiring positive impact.
With nothing to lose, Maria can enjoy the moment and play loose and free tennis that has helped break her into uncharted semifinal territory.
Of course, the other side of the fence is riddled with angst, tightness, and nerves, which would scupper any chance of a berth in the final.
Based on her life experience and how she has conducted herself throughout the first five rounds, expect the former to play out on Centre Court. That tsunami of momentum and belief will help Maria rise to the occasion.
Unfortunately for Maria, she faces a player brimming with confidence and appears unbeatable on grass.
Maria will force Jabeur to go the distance but will fall just shy of fulfilling her Wimbledon dream. Take Jabeur to advance in three sets.
Pick: Jabeur (-769), Three Set Victory (+333)
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