Aces vs. Mercury Prediction: Game 4 WNBA Finals Preview

The Las Vegas Aces are one win away from another championship when they face the Phoenix Mercury in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals at 8 p.m. ET on Friday at PHX Arena on ESPN.

A’ja Wilson, a four-time MVP, hit the game-winning shot to hold off a late fourth-quarter push by the Mercury in the Aces’ 90-88 win in Wednesday’s Game 3. If the Aces earn one more win for their third title in four years, Wilson will have a strong resume to be considered the greatest player in WNBA history.

Phoenix hopes to delay that coronation for at least one more game. The Mercury are short underdogs at home in an elimination game and +1500 to erase a 3-0 deficit in this best-of-seven series.

Here’s a look at the latest WNBA odds and my favorite Aces vs. Mercury prediction for Game 4:

Aces vs. Mercury Odds for Game 4: Spread, Total, Moneyline

• Aces spread: -2.5
• Mercury spread: +2.5
• Total: 163.5

Aces vs. Mercury Prediction: Game 4 on Oct. 10

Based on the initial WNBA betting lines, I’m taking Phoenix’s moneyline (+115) as my favorite Aces vs. Mercury prediction ahead of Friday’s Game 4.

I’d actually recommend taking the +190 price on the Aces’ series score of 4-1, meaning they’d finish the job on their home floor in Sunday’s Game 5. That’s essentially the same bet as the Mercury’s moneyline for Game 4, but allow me to make the case for why they can stave off elimination.

For one, this is simply a market correction. Phoenix closed as a 4.5-point favorite at home in Game 3. Satou Sabally left Wednesday’s contest with 4 minutes, 26 seconds left in the fourth quarter, so perhaps this line adjustment has something to do with her availability.

Phoenix managed to tie the game after being down 10 when Sabally went to the locker room. I don’t know if they can withstand an entire game without her, but the late push was a promising sign.

The Mercury were down by as many as 17 at one point, as the Aces nearly buried them with a barrage of 3-pointers. If Las Vegas isn’t shooting as well from deep with only one day off, Game 4 could end up being a different story.

Las Vegas has won six straight head-to-head matchups with Phoenix, but four of those contests have been decided by three points or fewer. The Mercury have been on the wrong side of some close games, but they could finally get one in a spot where the Aces might not be as motivated.

Prediction: Mercury ML (+115)