Fever vs. Aces Prediction: WNBA Playoffs Game 3, Round 1

It’s win or go home for both the No. 6 Indiana Fever and No. 3 Las Vegas Aces in Game 3 of their Round 1 series. Tipoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on Thursday at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas on the USA Network.

Get my Fever vs. Aces prediction based on the latest WNBA odds:

Fever vs. Aces Prediction: Thursday, Oct. 1

• Aces’ first-half spread (-1.5)

I’m laying the points with the Aces’ first-half spread, as I expect the defending champions to set the tone in an elimination game.

Coming off a 99-89 loss in Game 2, Las Vegas knows it can play better. The Aces gave up 30 points in the second quarter of Tuesday’s loss and fell behind 48-43 at the break.

A’ja Wilson got off to a slow start, too, scoring 10 points on eight shots in 17 first-half minutes. She finished with 22 points on 5-of-11 shooting and had an altercation with a fan in the fourth quarter.

The Aces should be plenty motivated to get off to a better start at home, as they often did during the regular season. Las Vegas ranked third in the league with a +12.7 net rating in the first half of home games.

At the same time, the Fever tend to struggle more on the road, particularly on offense. During the regular season, Indiana averaged 92.8 points per game away from home. That was more than six points below the team’s home scoring average.

The Fever could still win this game, and I like their chances of a deep run if they do pull off the upset. But I’ll back a strong start from a team that knows how to handle these situations better than anyone else.

Prediction: Aces’ first-half spread (-1.5)

Fever vs. Aces Odds for Game 3, Round 1

• Fever spread: +4.5
• Aces spread: -4.5
• Total: 181.5