- Get WNBA expert picks and analysis for Mercury vs. Aces.
- Las Vegas is a 3.5-point favorite for Game 2.
- The Aces are -220 to win the WNBA Finals.
Everyone could have used more than one day off following an incredible opener.
Still, Game 2 of the WNBA Finals between the Phoenix Mercury and the Las Vegas Aces is set for 3 p.m. ET on Sunday at Michelob ULTRA Arena, airing on ABC.
The Aces were victorious in Friday’s Game 1, winning 89-86 in a matchup that featured nine ties and 12 lead changes. Alyssa Thomas missed a pair of free throws, needing to make just one to tie the game with 25 seconds remaining.
For Sunday’s encore, Las Vegas remains a 3.5-point favorite at home.
Here’s a look at the latest WNBA odds and my favorite Mercury vs. Aces prediction for Game 2:
Mercury vs. Aces Odds for Game 2: Spread, Total, Moneyline
- Mercury spread: +3.5
- Aces spread: -3.5
- Total: 164.5
Mercury vs. Aces Prediction: Game 2 on Oct. 5
Based on the initial WNBA betting lines, I’m riding with the Under (164.5) for my favorite Mercury vs. Aces prediction in Sunday’s Game 2.
The Game 1 total started at around 159 before closing at 161.5. The Mercury and Aces proceeded to score 175 combined points to clear the over by a comfortable margin.
Now that the total has jumped three more points, I prefer the under in Game 2. This could end up being the highest total of the series, as these lines typically decrease as the matchup progresses.
The reason why totals tend to drop in a playoff series is that players are tired and coaches are making adjustments. Well, both could be true in Game 2.
Friday’s opener was a back-and-forth affair that took a lot out of each team to get to the finish line.
Chelsea Gray and Sami Whitcomb each took a trip to the locker room at one point. Thomas was grimacing from an apparent hand injury in the closing minutes. I’m curious how everyone responds in Game 2 with only one day off.
At the same time, I expect both coaches to devise game plans to slow down the opposition.
Las Vegas head coach Becky Hammon deployed a zone defense in the second half. Phoenix head coach Nate Tibbetts knows he can get more out of a Mercury team with the best defensive rating in the postseason.
Given all these factors, the under is the play after it climbed as much as it did.
Prediction: Under 164.5 (-110)
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